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    AL Wild Card Chase – Rays vs. Orioles

    Posted by FairwayJay August 4, 2012

    MLB Sports Betting QuadJacks Sports on Saturday, August 4, 2012.

    Wenailed a solid underdog winner on August 1, 2012 when the Rays beat the A’s 4-1. In my analysis of that game, we noted that betting baseball is about value and  under-covering potential, both in players and team performances. We’ll take another pro-active approach in support of the underdog Orioles (55-51) against the poor-hitting Rays (56-50) Saturday as the two teams remain in the thick of the AL wild card chase.

    A check of the season-long stats show the Rays hitting just .231 this season; second-worst in the AL ahead of Oakland.  The Rays struggled through the month of July with poor hitting and scoring results. In fact, over the Rays last 12 games they have scored 3 runs or less nine times. That includes 2, 2 and 3 runs against Baltimore in four meetings including last night’s 2-0 win. Baltimore could not muster much offense against left-handed pitcher Matt Moore Friday, but a bounce back is likely despite Rays pitcher Jeremy Hellickson’s career success against the Orioles.

    Hellickson snapped a long winless streak on July 24th when he beat the Orioles and Wei-Yin Chen as a +130 underdog.  Hellickson (6-6) had not won a game since May 16th. He’s pitched decent at times as his 3.23 ERA would indicate. But a check under the hood shows some potential leaking oil. Hellickson’s xERA is over 4.20 which is a better indicator of performance and potential guide to future results. He has a sub-par strikeout-to-walk ratio (70/41 in 111 innings) and his ground ball profile is also below average. When you factor in the match-ups of the Orioles loaded left-handed lineup plus slugger Adam Jones, and consider Baltimore gets a second-shot at Hellickson in less than two weeks, we have to consider the Orioles given the solid plus price Saturday (+125).

    Further supporting the Orioles as ‘Dog is not only the division rivalry and position in the wild card chase, but that the Rays lineup lacks punch and production and Tampa Bay faces a solid left-handed starter in rookie Wei-Yin Chen (9-6). Baltimore manager Buck Showalter has made many positive comments about Chen and especially after he dominated the red-hot A’s lineup last time out delivering 12 K’s, 3 hits and zero earned runs in nearly six innings. Chen’s skill sets are solid in support of his 3.65 ERA and .233 batting average against (BAA), and he’s been in strong form with a 2.49 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. Chen has solid command with 43 BB in 125 innings and he can also get the strikeouts (105) with his mid-90’s fastball, solid slider and developing forkball. He’s been consistently solid for the Orioles this season and we can project more success against a weak-hitting Rays lineup that has struck out 860 times; sixth-worst in the Majors.

    Despite Baltimore’s recent struggles at Tropicana Field, Fairway’s Forecast calls for the Orioles win as underdog with an additional 5-inning wager on Chen worthy of support.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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