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    Baseball Betting – Final Week of Regular Season

    Posted by FairwayJay September 25, 2012

    Betting big favorites is a major mistake in MLB.

     
    The push to the playoffs enters the final week in Major League Baseball and two division titles are up for grabs in the American League (AL) as the Orioles try to overtake the Yankees and the ChiSox desperately try to hold off the Tigers. Either Detroit or Chicago’s season will end, as neither is a wild card contender in the final week. However, four AL teams remain in contention for two wild cards and the standings show a hotly contested race for the playoffs. The National League divisions are clinched by Cincinnati and San Francisco, while Washington has the league’s best record and a 5-game lead over likely top wild card Atlanta.

    As the pressure rises for the push to the playoffs and pennant, so do the betting lines. As is often the case in September, the betting lines on home favorites are mostly inflated, as teams with “need” and in contention for the playoffs are priced as more prohibitive favorites. The linemaker knows the public is going to bet these better teams pushing for the playoffs, as the bettor believes they “must win,” thus they should win.  That is just not the case, and the truth is magnified in the final 7-10 days as the pressure mounts on many of these prohibitive favorites in contention.

    The reality is that for nearly the past decade, home favorites of nearly -200 or greater are a big losing proposition the last week of the regular season. To protect a proprietary database, I won’t list the exact record, but know that these huge betting favorites have won only 55% of the games on a sample size of over 100 games.  (If you’re interested in some specific parameters to which this really pops, shoot me a message at the contact provided below and I’ll fill you in some more.) But know that with a majority of these big betting favorites 2-1 or better, you can make some big profits hitting even 7 out of 20 big ‘Dog winners.

    So as I’ve written about recently, try getting out of your comfort zone and take a shot with some big ‘Dogs. While Baltimore has eight games remaining and are just 1.5 games behind the NY Yankees for the AL East division title, the Orioles are in the driver’s seat for the wild card.  Baltimore hosts terrible towel-tossing Toronto on September 25, 2012. The Blue Jays split a double-header with the Orioles on September 24 to snap a 7-game losing streak. But while Toronto seems to have thrown in the towel, the fact is that Orioles pitcher Joe Saunders should never be a 2-1 favorite over anybody. Yet he and the Orioles are laying -210 in places and that’s truly a juiced line for a team in need.  Saunders has allowed 9 runs and 15 hits in two home starts covering 11 innings since his trade to Baltimore, and he was no better at home for Arizona, another hitters park.

    The reality is that teams in “need” often “bleed.” The fact that Saunders shut out the Blue Jays over six innings on September 3rd only adds to the inflation in the betting line.  Blue Jays starter Aaron Laffey may not pitch past the 5th inning, but along with his teammates and betting backers, they might all enjoy the role of spoiler in what I project to be a higher-scoring game. A similar situation arises in Chicago at another hitters park where the White Sox are a prohibitive favorite and not a worthy one given the $2 price against the Indians, as Sox pitcher Liriano sports an ERA over 5.0 with inconsistency and control issues. Another high-scoring game expected with a over-adjusted line on the home team with playoff pressure in need.

    With the pressure mounting and the top teams in the AL giving it everything they have to reach the playoffs, know that their losses and disappointment can be your gain and gratitude.  There are five AL contenders and home teams laying nearly $2 or more on September 25th, and it’s time to reward yourself with a bone by betting on these big ‘Dogs.

    To learn more about my work and insights, email me at FairwayJay@gmail.com and follow me on Twitter – @FairwayJay.

    QuadJacks - Tuesday, September 25, 2012

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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