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    Betting Baseball – LA Angels and Rival Rangers Battle in Texas

    Posted by FairwayJay July 30, 2012

    Let’s finish the month of July with a MLB Fairway Forecast before we turn to August where football becomes a focus. The LA Angels (56-47) are within 4.0 games of division-leading Texas (59-42) following the Angles 15-8 route of the Rangers last night.  The teams combined for 28 hits at one of the Majors top-hitting ballparks, and plenty of hits and runs are projected again July 31, 2012.

    The price is pick ‘em (-105) and the Rangers have taken $ despite Angels ace Jered Weaver’s Cy Young-like stats this season. Weaver (13-1) goes for his 8th-straight win while sporting a American League-best 2.26 ERA. He has pinpoint control and outstanding stuff that has allowed him to hold opponents to a .201 batting average with a league-leading 0.95 WHIP.  But take a look below Weavers outstanding surface stats and we can project some regression. He’s off his shortest outing since his worst performance at Texas in mid-May. Weaver pitched just 5-innings with over 100 pitches thrown in very humid conditions July 25th vs. KC, and his road ERA (3.63) is nearly identical to his actual xERA (a better gauge of actual performance and guide to future results).

    Weaver also has a fly-ball bias and potential problems could surface at this ballpark against the Rangers AL-leading lineup (.276 BA, 121 HR’s). Note Weaver’s 0-3 record and 11.31 ERA his last three starts against the Rangers at Texas, including a pounding by the Rangers on May 16 when Weaver had his worst start of the season allowing 8 runs and 10 hits in just 3+ innings. After facing Weaver just 10 days ago in LA, the Rangers will be ready for a familiar foe and motivated off a Angels beat down last night.

    The Angels should continue their strong hitting with the second-best batting average in the AL (.270) along with 119 HR’s. LA features some very strong right-handed sticks to hit Holland, with Trout, Hunter, Pujols and Morales at the top of the lineup. Those four sluggers went 8-for-18 last night with 3 HR’s and 13 RBI’s. Holland struggles pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington with a 5.94 ERA and 8 HR’s allowed. Last season he posted a 4.69 ERA at home with a .292 BAA. Recall that Holland was on the disabled list most the month of June as his fastball velocity was down due to shoulder fatigue. He has allowed at least 3 runs in three of his last four starts in July and the Angels have hit Holland well in his career with a .285 BA.  The Angles hammered Holland for 6 runs and 9 hits including 2 HR’s when they met July 20th in Los Angeles.

    A final piece to the strong hitting and higher-scoring projection shows umpire Jim Reynolds behind the plate; 14-7 ‘over’ the total in his games as home plate umpire this season. More muscle on display at the dish in this key AL West match-up.

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in betting baseball over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. Fairway Jay is a proven past profit producer in MLB and produced winning and profitable months in April, May and June this year. With documented success and experience to battle with the best and beat the bookmaker, join a proven pro on the baseball diamond and profit from Fairway Jay’s experience and well-rounded game. Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

     

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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