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    Betting College Football – Big Ten Openers – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping September 1, 2012

    Posted by FairwayJay August 31, 2012

    Four Big Ten vs. MAC match-ups highlight opening weekend with some significant coaching changes in the Big Ten

    The Michigan State Spartans kicked off the college football season with a home win over Boise State 17-13 on August 31st. While we cashed a winner on the ‘under’ in that game, our fortune was not as good with Michigan State. The Spartans took most the money and were bet strongly up to -8 on game day, only to burn their betting backers while taking a knee on the final two plays of the game inside the Boise State 5-yard line.  That followed a 13-play drive covering over 6-minutes to close the game.

    I can tell you from experience and years of documenting statistics and profiles in college football that when a team out-rushes an opponent 212-38 and runs the ball 52 times to 24 for the opponent, a majority of those games will end in an easy double-digit victory. Consider that the Spartans had a 453-208 yard advantage, 27-12 first downs edge and ran 90 plays to 56 for the Bronco’s and you have to just bite the bullet and move to the next game knowing you suffered a tough ATS loss if you bet Michigan State. When teams fail to cover a point spread under 10-points with those kind of statistical advantages, you can almost always look right at the turnover column and find your answer why they didn’t deliver the money. Michigan State had 4 turnovers while Boise State had two (2), and Boise State’s only touchdown was by their defense on a 43-yard interception return.

    I was in attendance at Sam Boyd Stadium to see Minnesota escape Las Vegas with a 30-27 triple overtime win over UNLV August 30th. Under the total bettors can only shake clear their heads after losing that wager despite a 13-13 tie at the end of regulation.

    On to September 1 and we see an emotional game for Penn State at home to open the season vs. Ohio University as a TD favorite. New coach Bill O’Brien takes on a big challenge replacing the legend Joe Paterno and the scandal and sanctions placed upon Penn State. The Bobcats won 10 games last season and are stronger this year under veteran coach Frank Solich.  Northwestern travels to Syracuse in a pick ‘em contest while Michigan is up to +14 with a very tough task in their opener taking on Alabama at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Wolverines will now play the game without their starting RB and reserve DE, as both were suspended August 31st. Nebraska was bet up sharply to a 20-point favorite over So. Mississippi while Ohio State is laying 4 TD’s vs. Miami, Ohio in coach Urban Meyer’s debut as Buckeye’s head coach.

    Illinois and new coach Tim Beckman (Toledo LY) could be in tough against Western Michigan as a 10-point favorite. These coaches know each other well from their time in the MAC and recall last year’s 66-63 shootout.  Western Michigan has a veteran team and offensive line along with the league’s top-returning senior quarterback. The Broncos are projected to be the MAC’s best team despite a poor defense last season, but improvement expected and WMU covered 4 games as road ‘Dog last year including a 23-20 loss at Illinois as 14-point underdog.

    Another MAC team worthy of support Saturday looks like the other strong MAC-West entrant Northern Illinois. The Huskies have won 11-games each of the past two seasons and are again among the MAC’s best teams. They closed last season with 9-straight wins and are now a 10-point underdog against Iowa with the game being played on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Chicago; less than 70 miles from NIU’s campus in Dekalb. Note that a 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms are in the afternoon forecast with winds 10-15mpg. The Hawkeye’s have just 11 returning starters with a younger team that appears to be down a bit this season.  Iowa’s defense really slid last year to post some of the worst numbers under head coach Kirk Ferentz (13 years), as the Hawkeye’s allowed 24 ppg and 379 ypg. Iowa now has a new offensive and defensive coordinator plus additional coaching staff changes. Meanwhile, former Wisconsin Defensive Coordinator Dave Doeren led Northern Illinois to the MAC-Championship in his first season as Huskies head coach last year. That was with just 2 returning starters on the defensive side of the ball and now 8 are back this season with improvement expected. NIU has some changes on offense and a new QB, but he has game experience the past two seasons. Both teams have questions along the offensive line, and while the Huskies may not match the past two season’s rushing numbers of 234 and 260 yards per game, the sled-‘Dogs still offer plenty of bite against a mediocre Big Ten entrant.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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