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    Betting College Football – Rivalry Weekend by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 22, 2012

    Handicapping the Seasons Biggest Emotional Games

    In seasons past I’ve discussed and written about rivalry and revenge games, last home games, bowl eligibility games and the emotion, momentum and letdown of many of the late season college football games. This week is the biggest weekend of the college football season for rivalry games, and I’ve outlined some of the situations surrounding many of the meaningful games.

    Many poker players enjoy being challenged and try especially hard to outsmart and outplay opponents that they are familiar or even consider ‘rivals’. Sports bettors enjoy the chance to beat their ‘rival’ – the bookmaker – while competing to beat the game and ‘profit’ from the experience. As November football continues, the college football games become bigger and more meaningful, as many rivalry games define a college football team’s season.

    Rivalry games are considered the lifeblood of college football and some of the most anticipated games of the season. This is a time when bitter enemies play for personal pride, past players, fans, recruiting wars and state supremacy. The underdog may have a losing record and be playing this as their ‘bowl’ game while also trying to ruin the enemy’s season. These contests attract special attention and coverage from the media, but thousands of fans and alumni across the nation look forward to at least one contest per season; the game against their biggest rival.

    These rivalry games present an interesting dynamic from a handicapping and betting perspective, as statistical profiles and won/loss records are often trumped by emotion, intensity and the situational handicapping that is at its contrary peak during rivalry week.  Major line adjustments are made not only from recent results, but the situations surrounding teams such as bowl eligibility, conference title game appearances or in Notre Dame’s case, a chance to secure a spot in the national title game. Ironically, the Irish are playing rival USC, the preseason #1 team in the country, and the betting line has been adjusted by at least 17 points from what would have been the week 1 line.

    So as you analyze the teams, statistics and situations surrounding these rivalry games, know that the emotions are high and the pressure to win is often at its peak.  And if you believe that even the biggest ‘Dogs are too ugly to back with your hard-earned money, I’ll remind you that in 2007 we cashed our biggest rivalry game of the season when the Pitt Panthers (+29) upset undefeated West Virginia 13-9 in the Backyard Brawl to knock the Mountaineers out of the national championship picture. Our big puppy ‘Dog also delivered an easy ‘under’ the total winner in that game against the high-powered West Virginia offense; proving again that defenses and intensity levels rise in these emotional rivalry games.

    As you evaluate these rivalry games and your opponents, be sure you understand the stats, situations, betting lines and value before you bet, raise or consider going ‘all-in’. Going broke because your emotions caused you to go on tilt is not a disciplined approach or prudent play.

    As always, if you don’t have the time, energy, discipline or ability to consistently project point spread winners, get on my bag and I’ll guide you down the fairway and chip-in with your approach to the green.  Twitter: @FairwayJay

    Friday, November 23

    Washington (-14) at Washington State – The Apple Cup. A win by Washington and the Huskies complete an 8-win season for the first time since 2001. The Pullman Puma has flopped on the field in the first season under head coach Mike Leach. The Air Raid offense has been grounded and off field issues and controversy continues. Thus this revenging rivalry home ‘Dog with the nation’s worst ground game (30 rushing ypg) is still a risk with a lack of chemistry and cohesion along with injuries. The Huskies are the team that has battled back from adversity this season and should enjoy clawing the Cougars as coach Sarkisian goes to 5-0 in the Apple Cup and keeps Washington State winless in Pac-12 play.

    Arizona State at Arizona (-3) – Two new coaches have turned the fortunes in Tucson and Tempe and this ‘Dual in the Desert’ is expected to be a shootout for the Territorial Cup.  Both teams are 4-4 in Pac-12 play and Rich Rod’s spread offense has the Wildcats (7-4) piling up over 490 ypg offense in league play. That’s 45 ypg more than the Sun Devils (6-5) and coach Graham’s up-tempo offense, who has yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. However, the difference here is defense. ASU is #2 in Pac-12 play allowing 350 ypg and 4.9 yards per play (yppl) and they have a league-best 37 sacks in 8 conference games.  The Wildcats have a league-low 12 sacks and Arizona is dead last in defense allowing 527 ypg and 6.4 yppl. Arizona State is also by far the least penalized team in the Pac-12 and have the best punter in the conference. Arizona coach Rodriguez has long been a fade as favorite as he stands 3-10-1 ATS in that role against winning teams. The Wildcats are 6-1 at home and against the two quality conference opponents they beat USC 39-36 despite allowing 618 yards offense (5 USC turnovers), and lost to Oregon State 38-35; allowing 613 yards. Along with Arizona State’s revenge motive for last year’s 31-27 loss as a 10-point favorite, we’ll favor the Sun Devils as ‘Dog to deliver the green in a high-scoring victory.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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