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    College Football Betting – Analysis of a Winning Wager with Fairway Jay

    Posted by FairwayJay October 14, 2012

    Handicapping when the data is difficult and bookmakers dilemma

    Over the past decade, I’ve written thousands of articles, game analysis and provided information and insight on sporting events. I’m often asked for opinions on games, and as a professional it takes experience(s), skill, insight and an intuitive feel for the game to deliver consistent winning results.  Analyzing box scores and data, and understanding what it means and how to interpret the information and apply it to future results effectively takes years of experience.

    This past Saturday an interesting match-up and handicap existed and had the bookmaker in a dilemma.  A vast majority of bettors had no interest in the game, as Rice (2-4) and previously unbeaten new FBS entrant Texas San Antonio (UTSA, 5-1) hardly have the attention of the public or bettors.

    Fortunately for bookmakers, not enough people can understand the statistical implications of a team like UTSA, as they had played three non-FBS opponents. The bookmaker has a dilemma in setting a betting line, as UTSA was undefeated while having played the weakest schedule of any FBS team while Rice had struggled against stronger opponents.

    The previous week we identified and played a somewhat similar situation in Big 12 play as Oklahoma had strong redemption against Texas Tech, who had played a soft schedule of opponents while sporting strong stats that had them ranked #1 in the nation in defense (yards against). Those stats were skewed and did not represent the true strength of Texas Tech based on their schedule of opponents. We won with Oklahoma, but Texas Tech proved they are at least a quality club by handily beating West Virginia this past Saturday. However, UTSA is not even in the same class let alone discussion of decent FBS teams.

    We came in with Rice as our ‘Big Bertha’ top-play winner on Saturday, October 13, 2012. Here is the game analysis I provided to regular Fairway Followers and personal clients who subscribe to services. I hope you at least learn that all games provide an opportunity to profit and edges can be found as you learn and better understand how to evaluate statistics, box scores and other components involved in interpreting data to form a correct opinion on a game or event.  Rice rolled up nearly 500 yards and overwhelmed UTSA on the ground with 302 rushing yards while holding UTSA to 239 yards and just 4.3 yards per play. Rice won 34-14 as a 2.5-point favorite.

    Now we have a 1-win Rice team against 5-0 Texas San Antonio. The Linemaker knows the real story and has Rice a 2.5-point home favorite. But it’s not enough. In fact, this line would have been near 10 opening week. Texas San Antonio is a fraud, and note their schedule and slate of wins while going undefeated (5-0). No FBS team has played a softer schedule this season. The Roadrunners have played three non-FBS teams including Georgia State (0-6), Northwestern Oklahoma State (0-6) and Texas A&M Commerce (1-4). These are ridiculously bad teams, and the linemaker has a dilemma as he does not know how good or bad Texas San Antonio is this season. Their two FBS opponents are also bad, so as you evaluate the stats accumulated, it becomes a tough handicap to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Texas San Antonio as we are unable to evaluate comparable opponents. But with a review of the box scores and performances we can conclude that the Roadrunners stats are very poor when compensated for the competition and reviewing the opponent’s schedule of teams played and those stats.

    Rice can run the ball, and as a regional rivalry now likely to be played more often, the Owls should come stronger and note it’s Homecoming for the small Houston school. Rice is 1-5, but they have played UCLA, Kansas (win), Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Houston and last week’s loss to Memphis. The Owls offense struggled the last two games, but clearly note that QB Taylor McHargue was injured the end of the Marshall game and did not play vs. Houston and was limited in his return vs. Memphis. This week McHargue should have a big game and note Rice lost in overtime to Marshall’s fast-paced offense 54-51 while finishing with nearly 650 yards offense.  McHargue is a dual threat and also leads the team in rushing as the Owls average 181 rushing ypg running the option attack. The Owls were unable to use the integral part of their option offense against Memphis as McHargue was limited and protecting his left shoulder.  Rice averaged over 34 points and 430 yards offense their first four games.  No doubt the Owl’s run defense has been dreadful allowing 269 ypg, yet again vs. stronger and more physical teams. But we believe this situation and setup is very solid for Rice to re-emerge against an inferior foe and for us to take advantage of the linemakers dilemma. Rice coach Bailiff notes the players still believe in themselves and will improve. We expect them to show it this week. Rice fits some solid bounce back situations and now facing a very weak foe, the Owls will enjoy a rare victory as our top of the ticket Big Bertha play.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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