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    College Football Betting – Line Value & Situational Handicapping – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping Sept. 28, 2012

    Posted by FairwayJay September 28, 2012

    Look beyond the stats and recent results

    Most bettors have a very tough time betting on bad teams, and not many are worse than Tulane (0-3), who has lost all three games by double-digits while being at least a 17-point underdog in each contest. The Green Wave is also a team that lost 10-straight games to finish last season. They have one of the weakest home fields in college football at the Superdome in New Orleans with many empty seats. But the line vs. UL Monroe (-20) has been adjusted by over 2 touchdowns from what would have been the betting line had the game been played opening week. That’s of note especially when Tulane is now getting healthier with the return of their starting RB Orleans Darkwa, who is versatile both as a runner and receiver. The Golden Hurricanes have dealt with injuries and adversity and lacked stability this season. A very young and inexperienced offensive line has struggled and Tulane is dead last in college football total offense (199/game) and averaging a woeful 10 yards per game rushing. However, improvement is in sight.

    Big line moves and power rating adjustments are common in early season college football, but understanding the situations including scheduling, line value, motivation and injuries are key handicapping components over and above the match-ups and stat profiles. Clearly Tulane receives very little support in the betting market, but again that’s due to bettors tendencies to not wanting to lose money betting on very bad teams. That poor perception and approach is often met with contrary calls and often cashes on these poor performers.

    UL Monroe is in a big letdown spot on September 29, 2012 following 3 games against the big boys in Arkansas (upset as +30 ‘Dog), Auburn (OT) and last week vs. Baylor, a high-scoring 47-42 defeat but backdoor cover late. This is a classic public play of a team that has caught attention vs. a very bad team nobody wants or has any interest in betting. But note the defensive concerns for ULM and that they beat Arkansas after the Razorbacks starting QB went out with injury. More importantly is the return to health of some Tulane players. While the QB situation is still up in the air and backup 5th year senior is the likely making his first college start, Tulane should be ready to show better and this is the right situation to at least come in under an inflated line. ULM is not likely to be sharp or motivated for a full game, and this Sun Belt team is in a very rare role as a big betting favorite.  The Warhawks have been a big ‘Dog in 3-straight games and now laying 20-points on the road in a clear letdown spot. Time to get out of your comfort zone again.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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