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    College Football Betting – ‘Over’ the Totals Getting Hit Hard – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping Sept. 7, 2012

    Posted by FairwayJay September 7, 2012

    No. 2 USC to put up plenty of points vs. Syracuse Saturday

    Many football fans and bettors love to see scoring, and in today’s college football landscape we see plenty of scoring as top teams often hold nothing back as they push for points on the scoreboard and ‘style’ points to the voters in the weekly polls. With so many more teams running spread, no-huddle and/or up-tempo offensive schemes, it’s created a frenzy at times in the over/under totals market and plenty of cheering for scoring.

    This week, #4 Oregon is an inflated 35-point favorite vs. Fresno State, and the 77’-point total is the highest Ducks game total under 4th year head coach Chip Kelly. Oregon games have gone ‘over’ the total better than 66% of the time since Kelly became head coach and implemented a faster version of the spread offense. While this number is near the stratosphere, consider that Oregon has played six-straight games over the total going back to last year, with every game score at least 70 points, and the Ducks crushed Arkansas State last week 57-34 (Ducks had 50 points at halftime).

    While many recreational bettors may not be too concerned about a point or two if they miss an opening college total at 54 that is bet up to 56 for example, the reality is that you must still understand the dynamics of the market, key numbers, match-ups and the potential pace of play (# of plays).

    I Tweeted some information regarding this week’s totals in which 27 of the 43 Saturday college football games saw the totals bet UP from the posted opening number. Ten (10) of the games had a posted total of at least 60 points.[tweet https://twitter.com/FairwayJay/status/244227955776188416 align='left' width='350']

    One game I bet early and noted a big upward move on the total was #2-ranked USC at Syracuse (neutral site MetLife Stadium, NJ). The total has been bet up 6.5 points to 64.5.  The Trojans built a 35-0 halftime lead last week and cruised to a 49-10 win over Hawaii. The nation’s #1-rated QB Matt Barkley passed for over 370 yards and nearly 10 yards per pass attempt. Marqise Lee had 10 catches for 197 yards receiving and a TD, overshadowing future top NFL draft pick Robert Woods (42 yds receiving & 2 TD’s).  Lee also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. The star-studded USC offense will hold nothing back this season after being ineligible for postseason play last year and pursuing a national title. Running up the score when needed may not be too difficult for the Trojans offense and they will want to stay near the top of the polls throughout the season.

    Barkley turns 22 years old on game day, and as the Heisman Trophy favorite, he too will want to leave an impression on the national stage to the influential Eastern voters.  USC’s ‘We Play’ marketing campaign has Barkley’s image streaming across a video board in Times Square.

    Syracuse lost 42-41 at home last week and their defense allowed 337 yards and 28 points. USC should improve on last year’s scoring output in which they beat Syracuse 38-17 at home behind 5 Matt Barkley TD passes. He went 26 of 39 for 324 yards and his counterpart, Saturday’s quarterback for Syracuse Matt Nassib, went 25 of 37 for 230 yards.

    The difference for Syracuse this season is that they are 1 of 40+ college football teams that implement some variation of a up-tempo, spread, no-huddle or hurry-up offense. Offenses are trying to displace defenses and get them out of position. That can be by spreading the field, running more motion and misdirection plays, and a no-huddle or hurry-up offense which creates less substitutions and more chaos for defenses. The Orange ran 95 offensive plays last week vs. Northwestern and racked up 596 yards. Last year Syracuse averaged 68 offensive plays per game. Nassib threw the ball all over the field last week vs. Northwestern, completing 45 of 66 passes for 482 yards and 4 touchdowns. He and the Orange are likely to be playing from behind most the game vs. USC, and plenty of passes will be thrown by both teams in this contest.

    USC does have their Pac-12 opener and redemption game against Stanford next week (lost 56-48 last yr). Yet despite that along with cross-country travel and an earlier start time, I believe the Trojans will not wear down or let up but rather keep their foot on the gas pedal in the second half. I project USC to be near 500 yards total offense and 45+ points, so if Syracuse can execute and have some success on offense themselves, this should reach still get over the rising total.

    As college football totals are released next week, be ready to bet the ‘overs’ early on those games you have an interest which project to higher-scoring outcomes.  You’ll likely be getting the best number, as the linemaker adjusts the numbers based on betting action and understands bettors tendencies to bet ‘over’ the total.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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