• Air Max Shoes
  • kobe bryant shoes
  • KD 7
  • Lebron Shoes 12
  • Nike Zoom Hyperrev
  • Nike KD Shoes
  • Cheap Nike Free
  • Nike Free
  • Lebron 12 Shoes
  • Cheap Air Max
  • Cheap Lebron Jerseys
  • Kobe Bryant Jerseys
  • Kevin Durant Jersey
  • Ugg Sale
  • Jordan Shoes
  • Cheap Moncler Coats
  • Jeremy Scott Wings
  • Jeremy Scott Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Adidas Porsche Design
  • Kobe Shoes
  • Cheap Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Lebron 11
  • Porsche Design Adidas
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Lerbon James Sneakers
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Herve Leger Dress
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Porsche Design Shoes
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Nike Shoes
  • Cheap Coach Bags
  • louis vuitton purses
  • cheap nba jerseys
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Cheap Kobe Shoes
  • Kobe Shoes
  • KD Shoes
  • louis vuitton
  • KD Shoes
  • Sacramento Kings Jerseys
  • Washington Wizards Jerseys
  • Air Jordan Shoes
  • kd 6
  • kd 7
  • kobe 9
  • ralph lauren blue

    College Football Kickoff – Betting UNLV vs. Minnesota – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping

    Posted by FairwayJay August 28, 2012

    Two poor programs trying to turn their fortunes in Las Vegas

    The UNLV Rebels host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Thursday, August 30th, 2012. Kickoff from Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas is at 8pm PST; the last game of the night.  Minnesota is currently a 8.5-point favorite and the line has fluctuated between 7.5 and 9.5 points.

    I have no strong support on this contest, however I watch with interest as a handicapper, bettor and University of Minnesota graduate while currently living in Las Vegas. Both coaches Jerry Kill and Bobby Hauck took over programs two and three years ago that were bottom feeders in their conferences.  Many bettors have a tough time supporting really bad teams, and even public handicappers struggle with their support of bad teams. Giving out a 14-point underdog to your clients only to see them lose by 28 or more points is tough to take; especially if customers complain following a lopsided loss.

    That being said, both these bottom feeders could prove to be profit-producers this season despite struggling to obtain a winning record. The loser of this game is certainly going to be disrespected even more by the betting market in the weeks ahead, yet it’s often in Weeks 2-4 that we see the greatest improvement by teams and many times some surprising upsets as bettors over-react to one poor performance. Again, the linemaker knows that bettors are not going to support bad teams and especially after a lopsided loss. So knowing that bettors believe those bad teams are going to get ‘killed’ in their next game or two, the line is adjusted accordingly and often above any good power rating that has been established.  Teams that also lose by margin and further away from the point spread (AFP) are seen as terrible or troubled and it takes quite a bit to change public perception.

    Minnesota has a senior starter at QB in Marqueis Gray, a dual threat who led the team in rushing with just over 1000 yards last season. But his sub-par decisions and poor passing are a concern as he only completed 50% of his passes with a 8/8 TD-to-INT ratio last season. His inconsistency is noted, yet he’s big and talented with a strong arm and speed and should be better in his second season of coach Jerry Kills offense. Coach Kill likes to run the ball and along with QB Gray the running game will be stronger this season with improved OL play. JUCCO transfer RB James Gillum adds strength and will see time on the field, but returning sophomore running back Donnell Kirkwood is expected to start and lead a stronger and deeper backfield this season. The Gophers defense is another story, as they allowed 31 ppg and over 400 ypg last year. While it would be great to be ahead of the curve in betting these two teams, I’m not ready to play Minnesota with an unproven defense and questionable QB play. Projecting a bottom-tier team to win by double-digits on the road opening week is a risk I’m not ready to take.

    UNLV has a chance to move up this year, if in no part because the conference is a little weaker despite the additions of Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii. Boise State plays their second-season in the MWC after Utah and BYU left a season ago. Gone this year is former Mountain West power TCU now playing in the Big 12.  UNLV is expected to battle near the bottom again with New Mexico, Hawaii and Colorado State. Back-to-back 2-win seasons with just three conference wins the past two years under head coach Bobby Hauck leaves little to be desired. But Bobby Hauck can coach and lead young men, as he was 80-17 at Montana and guided the Grizzlies to 7-straight playoffs including 3 FCS championship games. Year 3 is a pivotal one and the Rebels could find riches in Vegas while catching significant points. UNLV will be improved and stronger along the OL and DL, yet the market and betting lines may not reflect UNLV’s expected improvement.  UNLV was a double-digit ‘Dog in all but two games last season, and the Rebels were favored in one contest against lowly New Mexico by a touchdown; and lost outright. Mark that redemption date down on November 3rd when UNLV hosts New Mexico.

    UNLV will start a redshirt freshman at QB, and Nick Sherry is another big kid (6-4/240) with a big arm. He’s seemingly smart and gets the chance to lead the Rebels. If his big arm and ability to make plays downfield shows with improved scoring against Minnesota, Northern Arizona and Washington State, he’ll have a solid shot to lead the offense to more points against weaker defenses in Air Force, Utah State and Louisiana Tech the first half of the season. The UNLV defense is also a disaster area that will be improved after allowing 40 ppg and over 440 ypg each of the past two seasons.  The defensive line is stronger and the deepest in years. Special teams will also be better for the Rebels this season as head coach Hauck coaches the ST units and all indications are that the attitude and chemistry of the team is very good.

    One hesitation is supporting UNLV is not the unknown of performance, but that two new coordinators will be calling the plays and shots for the Rebels this season.  Recommending and betting ‘under’ the total in this contest was considered, but the total has been bet down sharply to 50. UNLV would seem to be fairly conservative in the opener with QB Sherry and prefer to rely on their ground game that produced 164 ypg last season. A veteran OL with 5 returning starters and their top RB returning provides some semblance of strength. Yet with a pair of dreadful defenses from last season, it’s tough to be too confident in supporting either team without seeing them perform.  Strange things have happened in Las Vegas, so I won’t be surprised by any outcome between two programs trying to turn rubbish into riches in Vegas.  Both teams play FCS opponents the week following this game, but look for marked improvement by each team the following few games and the loser of this contest to provide more early season value moving forward.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

    Write Your Comment

    QuadJacks Tracker - Join Now

    Social Followers

    • Lulu

      that, allow me reveal to you exclaty what did deli …

    • great agency

      It's hard to find knowledgeable people about this …

    • w chojnowie

      Thanks for the marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed …

    • pixel Gun 3D hack Tool

      I like the helpful information you provide in your …

    • Mocha

      In response to "Coffee's" article, I see I'm first …

    Recent QuadJacks Tweets

    rolex, rolex submariner, rolex daytona, rolex datejust, rolex watches prices, rolex oyster perpetual, rolex submariner price, rolex presidential, rolex yachtmaster, replica watches rolex air king, gold rolex, presidential rolex, vintage rolex, replica watches, fake watches, replica rolex replica watch, replica watches uk, expensive watches, cheap watches, watches replica, gold watches, women watches, watches for women, watches for men, best watches, ladies watches

    fake rolex watches replica rolex watches for sale

    Duvetica Jassen Dames Duvetica Jassen Heren Peuterey Heren Jassen Peuterey Vrouwen Jassen Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Jassen Ralph Lauren Hoeden Ralph Lauren Jassen Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Kinder Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Jassen Woolrich Parka Heren Woolrich Parka Vrouwen Tiffany Malaysia Bangle Tiffany Malaysia Bracelets Tiffany Malaysia Cuff Link Tiffany Malaysia Earrings Tiffany Malaysia Key Rings Tiffany Malaysia Necklaces Tiffany Malaysia Pendants Tiffany Malaysia Rings Tiffany Malaysia Sets Buty Nike Air Max 90 Buty New Balance 574 Buty Converse Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Salomon Nike AIr Max 90 Scarpe http://piazzagroupsrl.it/ Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Nike Air Max 2015 boty nike dmsk nike boty boty nike pnsk Converse Dmsk Boty Converse Low Dmsk Converse Pnsk Boty Converse Low Pnsk Converse Loafers Dmsk Converse Sandals Dmsk Converse Loafers Pnsk Converse Mid Pnsk Converse Flip flops Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Pnsk ADIDAS DMSK BOTY ADIDAS NEO DMSK ray ban bryle slune?n bryle ray ban CZ gucci bryle Oakley bryle nike slovenija nike ?evlji slovenija nike air max slovenija Ralph Lauren Sverige Outlet Ralph Lauren Sverige Ralph Lauren Sverige Onlin ralph lauren pike stockholm outlet Canada Goose Barn/Bebis Canada Goose Dam Canada Goose Camp Hooded Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Kensington Parka Canada Goose Livigno Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Montebello Parka Canada Goose Mystique Parka Canada Goose Palliser Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Solaris Parka Canada Goose Thompson Jackor Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Trillium Parka Canada Goose Victoria Parka Canada Goose Whistler Parka Canada Goose Herr Canada Goose Banff Parka Canada Goose Chateau Parka Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Citadel Parka Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Heli-Arctic Parka Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Langford Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Mountaineer Jackor Canada Goose Ontario Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Yorkville Bomber 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante Moncler Donna 2014 Moncler Uomo 2014 Moncler Accessori 2014 Nuovo Moncler Donna Nuovo Moncler Uomo Nuovo Moncler Bambini Nuovoc Moncler Bambini Uomo Piumini Moncler Uomo Moncler Giacche Uomo Moncler Gilet Donna Piumini Moncler Donne Moncler Giacche Moncler Gilet Donna Moncler Piumini Bambino Piumini Moncler Bambini Giubbotti Peuterey Donna Giubbotti Peuterey Nuovo Arrivo Giubbotti Peuterey Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo Armani Jassen Heren Armani Heren T-shirts Boss Heren T-shirts Fitflop Schoenen Gucci Jassen Heren Hugo Boss Jassen Moncler Jassen Heren North Face Jassen North Face Jassen Dames Peuterey Jassen Philipp Plein Heren T-shirts Ralph Lauren Dames Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Trainingspakken Ralph Lauren Jassen YSL Heren T-shirts http://www.epicbabez.com/ http://www.topfsunglasses.com/ http://www.sevices-plaisirs.com/ http://www.viralfroxx.com/ http://www.turismonibbiano.it/ http://dantoniodaniele.it/ http://www.casazatlo.it/ http://www.maroc-reservation.eu/ http://www.lublin.be/ http://www.blue-almonds.eu/ http://www.mikebucks.com/ http://clairescoville.com/ http://clearancejewelryaustralia.com/ Ralph Lauren Womens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Mens London 2012 Ralph Lauren Mens City Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Swimwear Ralph Lauren Mens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pants Ralph Lauren Mens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Womens Dresses Ralph Lauren Mens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Womens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Vests Ralph Lauren Mens Sport Shorts Ralph Lauren Womens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Stripe Polo Ralph Lauren Womens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Bikini Ralph Lauren Mens Tees Ralph Lauren Mens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Mens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Classic Fit Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Rugby Ralph Lauren Womens City Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Tee Ralph Lauren Mens US Open Tennis Ralph Lauren Womens Stripe Polos Ralph Lauren Mens Sweaters Ralph Lauren Mens Tracksuits jack wills outlet Nike Air Max 2014 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2015 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 87 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 90 M??czyzna Nike Air Zoom M??czyzna Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 M??czyzna Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 +2 M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Lunarglide 6 M??czyzna Nike Zoom Fit Agility M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2014 Damskie Nike Air Max 2015 Damskie Nike Air Max 87 Damskie Nike Air Max 90 Damskie Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 Damskie Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 +2 Damskie Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 Damskie Nike Lunarglide 6 Damskie Nike Zoom Fit Agility Damskie Nike Roshe Run Kids Nike Roshe Run M??czyzna Nike Roshe Run Damskie Nike 3.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Huarache NM M??czyzna Nike Loafer M??czyzna Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip M??czyzna Nike Air Max Zero M??czyzna Nike 3.0 v3 Damskie Nike Huarache NM Damskie Nike Loafer Damskie Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip Damskie Nike Air Max Zero Damskie Nike Air Rejuven8 Mule 3 Nike SB Stefan Janoski Max M??czyzna Damskie Nike Air Max 2016 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2016 Damskie

    tag heuer replica replica tissot ralph lauren outlet