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    College Football Betting Power Offenses by FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay October 16, 2012

    Betting on teams that run and pass for at least 200 yards

    As we make the turn at the halfway point of the college football regular season, we can now utilize some stronger statistical numbers in evaluating teams and match-ups. Most BCS conference teams have now played 2-3 conferences games to give us realistic projections on their performance vs. similar opponents. No more “false favorites” who padded their numbers vs. a soft non-conference schedule. Earlier this month I posted a college football article on strong defensive teams – defensive dominators that met certain statistical qualifiers.

    This week we turn to the offensive side of the ball.  I research and write this article annually near the middle of October, and one area of strength I pay attention to at this time of year are teams which have strong, balanced offenses. As a guideline, I look for teams who both run and pass the ball for over 200 yards-per-game on average. As of October 17, 2012 there are 19 teams that both run and pass for at least 200 yards per game.  Note that there are 32 teams that rush for at least 200 ypg (approx.. 25% of all FBS teams) and 91 teams that pass for at least 200 ypg.

    The ability to run the football effectively also helps on the defensive side of the ball by keeping a defense fresh. In past seasons I used 200 yards as the “balanced, power” guideline for both running and passing. However, you may recall in 2006 that offensive production was reduced by nearly 10% with the clock rule changes that season. That didn’t last long, and we’re back to more teams running for near 200 ypg while we have more teams actually passing for at least 250 ypg (48). Your strongest college football power, balanced offensive teams run for at least 200 ypg and pass for at least 250 ypg – there are currently 10 such teams.

    Of course, you need to evaluate previous opponents and adjust accordingly based on opponent strength of schedule and the upcoming schedule to feel more confident in your team’s ability to sustain their strength and balance. The power teams can be attractive teams to bet on, especially as an underdog. If our power team has a strong defense to support this high-powered balanced offense then they often become an even stronger play in an underdog role; a situation I’ve used many times in the past including a top-play in 2010 when Michigan State beat Michigan 34-17 as a 5-point underdog. Those two Big Ten rivals meet again this week, but the Spartans are not sporting that same strong, balanced offense this season, while the Wolverines are close to being a “200 club” member.

    Good defensive coordinators can take an average defense and slow down another team’s offense if they lack balance. Thus, high-powered passing teams that lack a solid running game are susceptible to an inconsistent performance, especially if their own defense is not up to ‘par’ to hold down an opponent (see West Virginia last week at Texas Tech).

    Update your numbers weekly and pay attention to on-field performance, especially vs. quality opponents. You’ll be laying a pretty big price with some of these power teams in the weeks ahead, so continue to evaluate on-field performance and dig deep into the injury reports as well. Pay attention to key losses and how a team performs so you can project letdown situations and recognize when a team has a match-up edge. As you become more proficient in evaluating team’s strengths and weaknesses, you’ll find yourself with more tap-in birdies, and build your bankroll by getting the green.

    I’ve included some additional solid, balanced offensive teams not listed in the table below. Follow all these teams’ progress in the weeks ahead.  Arizona (183 run/369 pass), Houston (183/350), UL Monroe (198/288), Ball State (195/288), Tennessee (183/299), Arizona State (188/291), Toledo (189/286), Ohio State (263/190), Texas (187/259), Middle Tennessee State (195/238), Kansas State (248/180), San Diego State (225/194), Rice (198/220), Michigan (232/186), California (195/221), Western Kentucky (196/209), Northwestern (228/180), Notre Dame (181/206), Wisconsin (181/193)

    Strong, balanced offenses that run for 200+ ypg and pass for 200+ ypg are listed in the chart below. Note that these are NCAA statistics and rushing yardage and yards-per-rush includes quarterback sack yardage.

    Rushing yards, yards per rush (YPR), passing yards, yards per pass attempt (yppa) – pass completion percentage, points per game


    College Football Power Offenses
    Team Rushing YPR Passing YPP play/% Points/game
    Alabama 217 5.3 206 8.9    -    68% 40
    Arkansas State 216 5.1 233 7.3    -    62 31
    Cincinnati 220 5.6 245 8.4    -    56 37
    Clemson 201 4.6 324 8.4    -    67 41
    Florida State 233 6.3 297 9.8    -    71 46
    Georgia 227 5.7 257 9.3    -    61 41
    La. Tech 221 5.1 317 7.9    -    69 53
    Mississippi 211 4.9 230 8.0    -    64 32
    Nebraska 292 6.1 215 8.5    -    66 43
    Nevada 285 5.5 264 8.4    -    68 41
    North Carolina 210 5.3 276 7.8    -    62 40
    Northern Illinois 242 5.5 213 8.0    -    60 37
    Ohio 217 4.5 231 7.8    -    61 36
    Oklahoma 221 6.0 285 7.5    -    62 43
    Oklahoma State 263 6.0 338 8.9    -    66 48
    Oregon 302 5.8 309 7.5    -    66 52
    Texas A&M 236 5.9 308 8.4    -    66 47
    Tulsa 251 5.3 210 6.3    -    51 37
    UCLA 216 5.0 288 7.7    -    65 32

    QuadJacks - Wednesday, October 17, 2012

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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