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    College Football Rivalry Weekend – Betting the Biggest Games by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 23, 2012

    Handicapping the Seasons Most Emotional Games

    Here are Saturday’s big rivalry games. As you evaluate these emotional college football contests and surrounding subplots be sure you understand the stats, situations, betting lines and value before you bet or consider going ‘all-in’.

    As always, if you don’t have the time, energy, discipline or ability to consistently project point spread winners, get on my bag and I’ll guide you down the fairway and chip-in with your approach to the green.  Twitter: @FairwayJay

    Saturday, November 24

    Michigan at Ohio State (-3.5) – Few rivalries have a better combination of history and championship implications. The Buckeye’s (11-0) remain unbeaten but NCAA sanctions prevent them from playing in the Big Ten Championship game or a post season bowl. Yet first-year head coach Urban Meyer guides Ohio State in a series revenge role following last year’s high-scoring loss to Michigan. Wolverines QB Devin Gardner has flourished in 3 starts and he’ll have QB turned RB Denard Robinson adding speed in the backfield. Robinson had 5 TD’s in last year’s rivalry win over the Buckeye’s, but note that the ‘Wolvers are 0-3 SU/ATS when playing better teams away from home this season and Ohio State clearly qualifies with the leagues #1 offense in scoring (38 ppg) while averaging 425 ypg. The Buckeye’s also sport the leagues’ #1 run defense while Michigan is #1 in scoring defense (15 ppg) and total defense (284 ypg).  Undefeated home favorites playing their season finale off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a long-term losing ATS proposition near 75%.  Pure, intense rivalry.

    Georgia Tech at Georgia (-14) – ‘Clean, Old Fashioned Hate’ with the ACC option attack against the SEC team that dominated this rivalry before coach Paul Johnson arrived in Atlanta. Georgia head coach Mark Richt scheduled another triple-option team in last week’s prep vs. Georgia Southern and the #3 Bulldogs have clinched the SEC East and have the SEC Championship game on deck. Georgia QB Aaron Murray is nation’s top-ranked quarterback and the Bulldogs are still in the National Title Game picture. Yet the Yellow Jackets are on a roll recently and note the road team is on a 10-1-1 ATS series run. Georgia Tech also 9-1 ATS as ‘Dogs of 11 or more points and Georgia is on a 0-4 ATS run in their last home game (LHG) and beat Georgia Tech by 3 and 8 points as big betting favorite on this field in two recent meetings. Running game, revenge, series history and schedule situation point to big ‘Dog.

    Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-7) – This line has been bet down for the Bedlam Series showdown which has been dominated by the Sooners 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS since 2003. Oklahoma State (7-3 / 5-2 Big 12) is looking up at big brother again with Oklahoma (8-2 / 6-1). The Cowboys struggles on the road are noted, as is their high-powered 200 club offense with rotating quarterbacks.  But the Cowboys crushed Texas Tech and West Virginia the last two weeks while the Sooners escaped Morgantown in the closing seconds last week 50-49 after allowing 778 yards to West Virginia. Oklahoma’s run defense allows 195 ypg in Big 12 play to rank near the bottom while Oklahoma State allows 130 rushing ypg, but the Sooners have the stronger pass defense but still allow 49% conversions on third down.  Special teams edge to the Cowboys and that could prove pivotal. Oklahoma may have redemption on their minds for last year’s 44-10 loss to their rival, and coach Stoops has kicked the crap out of Gundy’s crew by at least 27 points in three previous home blowouts. But in a anticipated high-scoring shootout, the ‘Dog could have their day and get the puppy chow.

    Virginia at Virginia Tech (-10) – The Commenwealth Cup has been dominated by Virginia Tech for years with 8-staright wins over Virginia (7-1 ATS) including the last three by a combined score of 117-20. But the Hokies (5-6) are fighting for their Bowl lives following 19-straight Bowl seasons.  Virginia Tech struggled to beat lowly Boston College last week and pressure mounting for Bowl eligibility against a Cavalier’s team that is 4-7 and playing this rivalry game as their ‘Bowl’. The contrary and percentage play is Virginia despite their poor play, quarterback situation and stat profiles. The Cavs defense is still #4 in the ACC and #2 against the pass. Teams that fail to score 28 or more points as a TD+ favorite are a long-term poor ATS play. Can’t feel too confident in Hokies offense averaging 25 ppg that scored 17, 12 and 22 points prior to last week’s 30 against a bad Boston College defense.

    Texas Tech vs. Baylor (-3.5) – Baylor (5-5) off a BIG win over #2 Kansas State and looking to go Bowling. Neutral site game at Cowboys Stadium and the Red Raiders (7-4) looking for revenge following last year’s Baylor blowout 66-42. Tech has lost 3 of last 4 games against superior teams.   Both teams average over 350 passing ypg in Big 12 play to rank 1-2, but Tech is #2 against the pass while Baylor is near the bottom and also allows over 500 ypg and 57% completions on third down. We don’t endorse the Bears with their brutal defense as favorite.

    Auburn at Alabama (-33) – The Iron Bowl is expected to be a blowout for ‘Bama, who is back in the National Title Game picture following losses by Oregon and Kansas State last week. The ‘Tide will play for the SEC Championship next week after they roll their rival. But ‘Bama enters on a 0-3 ATS slide and is 1-5 ATS at home this season and this is the biggest point spread in the history of this great rivalry. Two years ago Auburn won the national title and beat ‘Bama on this field. A monumental fall from the mountain top.

    Mississippi State at Mississippi (-1.5) – The Egg Bowl looks a little uneven on the surface with Mississippi State (8-3 / 4-3 SEC) having a very solid season while Ole Miss (5-6 / 2-5) plays their last home game with bowl pressure.  The Rebels also enter on a 0-3 slide following last week’s last second loss at LSU (an easy winner for us), yet they are favored over their state rival. The Rebels were a ‘200 club’ offense mid-season and trying to learn to win under first-year quality coach Freeze, who has been a big money-maker in his recent coaching career. The Rebels led Texas A&M on this field by 10 points in the fourth quarter before another late loss, so we know Ole Miss is capable. Meanwhile, check out Mississippi State’s opening 7 wins and opponents and their results against A&M and LSU and you’ll know the side to support this week.

    Oregon (-9.5) at Oregon State – Long history of the Civil War rivalry and Oregon enters off a deflating loss to Stanford to end their perfect season and likely shot at the National Title. The Ducks (10-1 /7-1 Pac-12) have won the last four Civil War rivalry games. They have the nation’s most explosive offense to extend margins and average 50 ppg in Pac-12 play. But the Beavers (8-2 / 6-2) are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in Corvallis this season with a dominating defense that has held visitors to 12 ppg and 273 ypg on their home turf. The Beavers enter off one of their most impressive performances in crushing Cal last week 62-14. Oregon State head coach Riley is one of the best in the business when installed as underdog and has four outright ‘Dog wins this season. With Oregon’s bubble bursting last week, a letdown is more likely than a powerful performance against their rival.

    Indiana at Purdue (-6) – The Old Oaken Bucket goes to the winner of these two losing teams as Purdue (5-6) needs a win to become bowl eligible against rival Indiana (4-7). The Hoosiers have lost 2-straight to eliminate them from Bowl eligibility and Indian’s defense is dreadful allowing over 500 ypg. But the Big Ten’s #1 pass attack could spoil the Purdue party in a high-scoring shootout.

    Florida at Florida State (-7) – Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has had some unpleasant words for the BCS computer calculators, but he and the #10 Seminoles (10-1)  will have a chance to tomahawk the polls with a resounding win over #6 Florida (10-1). Both teams have superior defenses that rank top-4 in the nation in yards against. The stronger and more balanced offensive attack is clearly on the Seminoles side while Florida gets QB Jeff Driskel back under center this week. Tough task for a struggling Gators offense against the dominating, depth-heaving Seminoles defense. FSU beat the Gators last year 21-7 despite just 95 yards total offense. FSU also beat Florida two years ago 31-7.Another low-scoring game appears in the cards for this sunshine state showdown.

    South Carolina at Clemson (-4) – Another ACC vs. SEC showdown in South Carolina with the high-flying Clemson (10-1) offense against the superior Spurrier SC defense (9-2). South Carolina has cold-Cocked the Tigers the last 3 years by an average margin of 20 ppg. In Clemson’s only stepup game vs. a ranked opponent, they were beaten by Florida State 49-37. With dominating defensive end Jadeveon Clowney back in action for South Carolina, watch Clemson QB Tajh Boyd make some mistakes and the ‘Ole Ball Coach’ trump the Tigers again.

    Notre Dame (-5) at USC – It’s all on the line for Notre Dame (11-0); a win and they are in the National Title game. USC (7-4) has under-achieved after being the preseason #1; but what a line adjustment in what would have had the Trojans a double-digit favorite opening week. The pressure on the Irish is heavy and Notre Dame has escaped some very close calls this season vs. Pitt, BYU, Purdue, Michigan and Stanford. Young QB Golston continues to improve, but he’s likely to find resistance and make some mistakes in this environment. The Irish get lucky again and catch another break with top-QB Barkley out with a shoulder injury following last week’s rivalry loss to UCLA. Freshman QB Max Wittek makes his first career start against a top-tier Notre Dame defense that leads the nation in scoring defense (10 ppg). However, USC’s supporting manpower and talent on offense is the best the Irish have faced. The Trojans have dominated this rivalry, and while Notre Dame coach Kelly is among the best, this may be his toughest challenge under the circumstances. Notre Dame’s secondary will be challenged by the top, talented WR’s of USC. A conservative game plan is likely for the lucky Irish as the value, situation and pressure points to Trojans side.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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