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    Handicapping the November Nine – Part 1

    Posted by Coffee October 8, 2014

    The final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event is scheduled to conclude on November 11th – November 12th. Nine players from six countries will compete for the $10M first place money, and the rest will split close to $18.5M. The ninth-place finisher will have to console himself with the $727,836 he already received.

    Both Ladbrokes and Carbon Sports have opened betting on these finishers. Both sites have Jorryt van Hoof, Felix Stephensen, and Mark Newhouse finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, respectively. Over the next few weeks, I will offer short profiles regarding each player’s history and their path to the final table in an attempt to predict the order in which each competitor will finish.

    Full disclosure: aside from Mark Newhouse, I know next to nothing about these players. However, this ignorance will allow me to judge each player’s chances based upon both qualitative and quantitative data. I will be looking at their to-date winnings, their performance in large buy-in tournaments ($1000 buy-in or more), and their stack size headed into the final table.

    I will also look for any televised hands featuring the players (particularly during this tournament) to get a “feel” for how they are playing and how many tools they have to use, such as gear-changes, stop-and-gos, and other deceptive plays, provided that they don’t fall victim to Fancy Play Syndrome. I will also try to get an idea of how lucky they were, relatively speaking, to make it to the Final Table.

    All of it might not add up to much, and I certainly don’t believe myself more knowledgeable than the pros, but it should be interesting.

    If nothing else, you can follow Quadjacks on Twitter during the Final Table and lob snarky comments my direction when I turn out to be wrong.

    Anyway, here are the initial odds tables:

    Player Coffee Carbon Sports Ladbrokes
    Jorryt Van Hoof 3/1 2.5/1 (+250) 3/1
    Felix Stephensen 4/1 3.5/1 (+350) 4/1
    Mark Newhouse 3.5/1 4/1 (+400) 9/2
    Martin Jacobson 6/1 4.5/1 (+450) 6/1
    Dan Sindelar 7.5/1 7/1 (+700) 8/1
    Andoni Larrabe 8/1 7.5/1 (+750) 8/1
    William Pappaconstantinou 10/1 10/1 (+1000) 11/1
    William Tonking 14/1 12/1 (+1200) 16/1
    Bruno Politano 15/1 15/1 (+1500) 18/1

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