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    Horse Betting Tips with Erich Brehm | Hawthorne, Race 7

    Posted by EBrehmJr October 30, 2012

    Looking for a little weekday action? Here is a long shot to consider!

    Hawthorne
    Thursday, Nov 1
    Race 7
    Horse – #6 – Bug Juice
    Morning line – 8-1

    Let me start with a simple risk vs reward fact. If this horse drops below 6-1, I will NOT touch him as there are some relatively tough cookies in Hawthorne’s biggest race of the day. So keep an eye on that as it gets close to post time. (Remember, you cannot lock in odds in horse racing as you can in sports betting.)

    #6 Bug Juice has won 6 of 14 life time and won his last race, coming off a layoff, at Presque Isle Downs. He closed nicely from 5th by five lengths (5 lengths is equivalent to 1 second), making a 4 wide bid at the top of the turn to win by a length and a half. Now, why is how he won important? All major threats in today’s race prefer the lead or close to it, and if they all fight for it, this race will set up perfect for #6.

    Since that race, this horse has upgraded from 19% to a 28% winning trainer in Larry Rivelli. Larry is 22% with horses 2nd off the layoff and 30% when the horse won his last race!

    In addition, the connections put one of Hawthorne’s top jocks Quincy Hamilton in the driver’s seat.

    At the right price, this looks to be a sexy play.

    Thanks for the shout outs from those of you who played my 2 winning picks over the weekend. Good luck and stay tuned for tips on this weekend’s Breeders Cup!

    Erich Brehm is a poker player, gambler and horse handicapper. He has spent much of his life in the horse racing industry. Erich can be followed on Twitter @EBrehmJr.

    QuadJacks - Monday, October 29, 2012

    There are 14 Comments

    1. Bryan Matthews
      - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      Since when has Larry Rivelli been an improvement over Bruce Levine? For that matter, Quincy Hamilton over Harry Vega?

      • - October 31, 2012
          -   Reply

        Hey Bryan,
        I’d like to quickly address your concerns. As I mentioned before, Larry is winning 10% more of his starts than Bruce. Numbers do not lie, Larry Rivelli is simply having a better year.

        48 year old Vega could retire any day now and I personally have zero respect for racing in Pennsylvania. Hamilton, age 29, has been doing very well in Chicago and is clearly the stronger rider this day in age.

    2. wally
      - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      All that you say makes sense to me! I am sticking with your picks! Your credentials are excellent. Cannot wait for your help at Breeder’s Cup!!!!

    3. CutTheCrackJack
      - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      Thanks for the insight – I am 2 for 2 on your tips so here’s hoping my winning streak continues!

    4. - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      Thanks guys. Please remember, the value needs to be there. If he goes off at too much an underlay I strongly suggest you leave this pick alone.

      GLGL

    5. Bryan Matthews
      - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      As far as win percentage is concerned you’re right Rivelli’s is higher, anyone can see that. Rather I am suggesting Levine’s body of work definitely outweighs Rivelli and if we are talking level of competition (as you were with Vega) one would hardly argue Illinois racing is a tougher circuit than NY. this pint is accentuated by Levine’s earning per start which is nearly 2k more that of Rivelli’s.

      Further to that I would tend to suggest there is less speed signed on than you’re anticipating and in fact Bug Juice, will probably lay closer than you think. With that said, the #1 4-1 ML who is lightly raced and appreciates this distance on the lawn should improve and sit in a stalking position to get up in time.

    6. - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      Coming from a family that has owned race horses for over 30 years, I won’t be the first to tell you that trainers are all personal preference. Unfortunately for you, Bruce Levine is no longer in the picture. I prefer to focus on Larry Rivelli’s 2nd off the layoff percentage (22% on 129 races).

      As a gentleman, I wish you well with your creative pick – morning line favorite, on the rail, in a sprint race.

    7. Bryan Matthews
      - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      if you’ve been around racing as long as you say you have I’m sure you understand that the ML is indicative of what the track handicapper thinks the public bet, many times ML is inaccurate, notwithstanding I am sure you can appreciate 4-1 is hardly chalky, you yourself said this was a wide open race. Besides 4 to 1 provides decent value in my opinion on a horse I honestly believe will win. By the way, unfortunately for you rather Levine isn’t involved and the horse has not saw action for 9 months prior to his comeback win.

    8. - October 31, 2012
        -   Reply

      I never said this was a wide open race and I highly anticipate your horse going off as an underlay. 4 of his 6 wins were in Chicago and the betting public won’t forget that.
      I’m anxious to see how your favorite does vs my long shot… Good luck, Sir.

    9. Bryan Matthews
      - November 1, 2012
        -   Reply

      Looks like your selection scratched out for an easier spot, obviously the connections knew something you didn’t.

    10. Bryan Matthews
      - November 1, 2012
        -   Reply

      Good move by Bug Juice connections to,scratch out for tomorrow, they wouldn’t have beat Hogy’s (7 wide move) today. Off the lawn is probably a better scenario for that runner.

    11. - November 1, 2012
        -   Reply

      Unfortunately, our value pick scratched today. The chalk on the rail won at even money:( Nice pick, BM!

    12. Bryan Matthews
      - November 2, 2012
        -   Reply

      Ouch, Bug Juice finished last. Must have been a good reason he was off from Feb to Sept, guess you didn’t take that into consideration either, ha.

    13. - December 6, 2012
        -   Reply

      Bug Juice is back this Saturday Dec 8th and I still like him! Outside #9 and #10 look to battle with #3 and #4 for the lead and things should get messy at the top of the turn. #5 Bug Juice looks to sit behind the early pissing match and close quickly out of the turn. 5-1 odds look sexy and trainer wins 21% 3rd start off the layoff. #stillwinning

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