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    MAC Shootout Expected – Betting on Ball State and Toledo by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 6, 2012

    Handicapping the mid-week college football games with many shootouts in the MAC

    Mid 40’s temperatures and sunny for this MAC showdown and expected shootout on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Ball State (6-3 / 3-2 MAC West) is 4-1 ATS on the road and a proven performer better than 67% ATS in this road role for many seasons.  Last year the Cardinals went 4-0 ATS on the conference road. They enter on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, all as small favorite and also beat So. Florida and Indiana this year. Having lost to Toledo on their home field to close the season last year 45-27, the Cardinals will come strong and are plenty capable of competing and beating top-25 Toledo (8-1 / 5-0).

    Ball State features a ‘200 Club’ offense that runs (202 at 4.7 ypr/game) and passes (270/game) for over 200 ypg.  Toledo rushes for 199 ypg and passes for 255/game and just cracked the top-25 for the first time in over a decade. In fact, the MAC has four teams ranked in the top-32; all with just one loss.  Ball State led two of those teams before losing close contest to Kent State and Northern Illinois, a game in which they out-gained the #1 Huskies offense and their powerful ground game with Ball State piling up over 560 yards offense. Three turnovers cost the Cardinals against the mighty Huskies. Kent State needed a last second field goal to escape at home 45-43 in a game Ball State out-gained Kent 564-461. Both Kent State and Northern Illinois remain undefeated in MAC play, and Toledo has not played either of those top teams but has the big game next Wednesday at Northern Illinois to decide the MAC West champion.

    Both Toledo and Ball State have dangerous offensive weapons and suspect defenses, so a shootout can be expected; something quite common in these MAC weekday games. The two teams combined to average 68 ppg and over 900 ypg while the defenses surrender 60 ppg and over 930 ypg. In conference play, Ball State averages over 520 ypg offense and 35 points per game. The Cardinals also average a league-best 30 first downs in MAC play to just 22 for Toledo with Cardinals QB Keith Wenning leading the MAC in passing at over 325 ypg & 66% completions in MAC play. His top targets of Jamille Smith and Willie Snead, who leads the MAC in receiving yards and receptions and has more 10+ yard plays from scrimmage (46) than any WR in the nation.  The Rockets average 495 ypg in MAC play against weaker opponents and have the league’s top rusher in multi-purpose RB David Fluellen with nearly 1,200 rushing yards.

    The defensive profiles are very similar allowing approx. 430 ypg and 6.3 yards per play with the run defenses also similar allowing 5.2 ypr. Ball State’s pass defense is only allowing 54% completions in conference play and the Cardinals are allowing a league-low 26% third down conversions. The hidden edge comes in special teams, as Ball State features the #1 punt return man with Jamill Smith averaging over 18 yards per return and a good leg in their punter, #2 in the league in punting while Toledo is near the bottom averaging just 33 yards per punt.   Ball State’s kicker leads the league in FG’s made with 12 in MAC games. Note too that Toledo has benefitted from a league-high opponents penalties and 10 opponents turnovers in five MAC games.

    The Rockets recent conference wins are hardly impressive over league losers Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Buffalo. Ball State was picked near the bottom of the MAC from the start of the season and have been pretty impressive throughout the year. The rising line shows Toledo’s strength, but despite this being Ball State’s third-straight road game, the Cardinals offer the value side plenty capable as ‘Dog.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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