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    NFL Betting – Adjusting to the Market and Line Moves

    Posted by FairwayJay August 24, 2012

    Strong totals moves make for middle opportunities and additional evaluation

    The betting marketplace has reacted strongly to NFLX Week 3 odds, and totals bettors hit the ‘overs’ hard in early betting action.  Clearly this is a reaction to Week 2 NFLX results as over/unders went 12-3-1 or 12-4 depending on your lines with an average of 44.7 points scored per game.

    Eight games in NFLX Week 3 opened with a total under 40 points, but just one game remains under 40. The average total is lined at 41.5 points in NFLX Week 3; down slightly from just over 42 points earlier this week.  Note however that these totals are currently 4-points higher than last seasons (37.4) average during preseason Week 3 and also up sharply from the average of the four most recent seasons (38.2).  In the past four seasons in NFLX Week 3, there have been at least 10 games each year with totals in the 30’s. This year there is one (Browns/Eagles), so the line adjustment in the totals market is significant.  There has also been significant side money and line moves on the Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks, Lions and Steelers.

    Before you blindly bet ‘over’ the total in this year’s Week 3 NFLX games, know that the totals and lines are adjusted based on linemaker evaluation, anticipation and betting action, and that these moves are not always correct or as they appear. Last year there were 13 games in NFLX Week 3 that had closing totals in the 30’s. This year there is one (Browns/Eagles). Yet it’s the same game plan for many teams going through ‘dress rehearsal’ with more starters playing longer into the third quarter, yet there is seemingly a strong (over)-reaction to betting over the total.

    Adjustments had to be made in Week 2 as some teams played starters longer than normal and seasons past due to less practice time and revisions in offseason rules mandated by the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. As the football season progresses, we’ll have to continue to be wise in our evaluation of all the situations surrounding our analysis of the football games and betting market.

    Premium poker players understand the importance of making adjustments in their game based on situations and/or hands being played. When you have more aggressive players that are willing to ‘push the pace’ and play with more variance, you adjust with your own strength in position play and knowing the value of cards while putting the percentages in your favor.  You’re constantly evaluating your opponent, just as you do in evaluating and anticipating the market moves and betting action while doing your sports handicapping and analysis.  Your goal is to always win, but the importance of making good decisions, understanding situations and realizing value is significant. That’s what sports betting is about, and we must be able to adjust and make good evaluations as the numbers, lines and markets move.

    Week 4 NFLX will present another dynamic and adjustment as many teams give fewer starters significant playing time. Yet some coaches will want to see certain starters play more and keep them sharp, or give them playing time if they’re in competition for a starting spot, missed practice time or are returning from injuries.  So again, evaluation, adjustments and interpreting information are all part of the puzzle in your point spread prognosis and analysis of the teams, players and surrounding situations.

    Clearly when betting it’s best to be ahead of the curve, anticipate line moves and get your money in ‘good’. This allows you to adjust your betting position later in the week based on favorable line moves, injury situations and other related news that affects the betting marketplace.  However, waiting for lines to settle and/or betting later in the week does not mean opportunities are lost to make plenty of money; especially if you’re prepared and have sound methodologies.

    Sometimes we see an over-reaction to recent results, and clearly the oddsmaker makes adjustments based on not only most recent results, but tendencies of bettors to react to what they just saw. This can often times offer value in the other direction for savvy bettors that understand the dynamics involved and dig deeper into the match-ups, situations, and monitoring of players and playing time more closely. We’ve seen some of the NFLX Week 3 totals moves adjust back down nearly a full point, and with late information and news, such as the Chargers announcement of key starters not playing in NFLX Week 3, we can further analyze and adjust our betting and strategy based on our analysis and assessment.

    The betting market moves, and a majority of players cannot control the market. Nor can we control replacement referees and their decisions, unexpected plays or turnovers during the course of a game. But if you prepare and make proper adjustments with quality decisions while accepting certain situations out of your control, you’ll position yourself for more profits.

     

     

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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