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    NFL Betting – Analysis of a Winning Wager by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 16, 2012

    Handicapping NFL stats, situations, strengths and shortcomings

    Throughout the NFL season I receive requests on my NFL selections, opinions and game analysis. Some of my thoughts are put in writing while others are expressed on my weekly NFL podcast here on QuadJacks.   Last night we bet the Bills and took a big swing with Big Bertha as Buffalo beat the Dolphins and slowed the swimming fish 19-14. Plenty of positive comments from clients and replies to the play and offer, and here is the game analysis I provided for the winning wager. Be sure to sign up for the free Monday Night Football game analysis at FairwayJay.us.

    The Bills return home following a pair of tough road games and losses vs. division leaders Houston and New England. But Buffalo is playing better and should come with one of their best efforts and games against the sinking fish. The Bills lost both games vs. the Dolphins last season, and traveling on a short week following an awful home loss to Tennessee will be tough for Miami. Playing at Ralph Wilson Stadium is especially difficult for young QB’s, and Miami rookie Tannehill is about to experience that situation.

    Buffalo’s running game is strong averaging 143 ypg and near league-best 5.3 ypr. Miami meanwhile is averaging 105 rushing ypg and 3.8 ypr. Bills RB Fred Jackson will miss this game with a concussion, but C. J. Spiller can carry the load and he’s been one of the league’s best and most dynamic RB’s this season averaging a remarkable 7.3 ypr with 628 rushing yards. Despite just 87 carries, Spiller is #2 in the NFL with seven rushes of at least 20 yards and he’s a solid receiving threat out of the backfield. Spiller was the featured back in last year’s home loss to Miami with 91 rushing yards and another 76 yards on 9 receptions.

    Note that Tennessee ran over and through the Dolphins seemingly solid defense last week with 177 rushing yards and kept pounding the ball with 37 carries in their 37-3 mauling of Miami. The Dolphins run defense ranked top-5 in the league, but losses the last two weeks have shown struggles in the running game and some defensive deficiencies. Miami allowed the Colts to rack up over 510 yards offense with rookie QB Luck passing for over 400 yards. Bills QB Fitzpatrick has made too many mistakes and been erratic again this season, but he does possess some pretty good passing stats including 17 TD passes and he threw for over 300 yards last week at New England. Three Bills turnovers were costly in a 37-31 defeat, but note Buffalo averaged 6.5 yards per play with 162 rushing yards and the previous week against the NFL’s elite Houston defense the Bills had over 300 yards offense and 5.4 yards per play (league average). The Bills are playing better following their bye week before the Houston game, and this will be a big game in their return home.

    Both passing attacks rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL, and while rookie Tannehill has shown well at times, he still only has 5 TD passes with 9 INT’s including 3 last week.  Traveling for the third time in four weeks and being outgained by 120 ypg their last five games, the Dolphins are in a bad spot at Buffalo and expect the Bills to bounce back and reverse their recent losing ways at home against division opponents.  Hidden performance is the play of the Bills special teams which has been solid, but a -9 turnover differential has been the Bills downfall along with a deficient defense allowing over 400 ypg with a poor run defense. Aware that DE Kelsey is out again, but Miami’s offense is not a threat averaging just 324 ypg and clearly struggling following last week’s loss while the Bills offense is performing better and note in three home games the Bills have scored 34, 28 and 35 points.  Fitzpatrick was confident in the pocket with more aggressive passes downfield last week against New England. He should connect plenty with WR Stevie Johnson against Dolphins CB Sean Smith, who has struggled the past two weeks. Add in weather in the 30’s at game time and the fish won’t like the feeling in Buffalo this week.

    The Bills are 8-1 ATS as home favorite less than 5 points playing a sub .500 team. The schedule is much more manageable the final seven games and this is a great situation for the Bills to get redemption on the Dolphins and begin their way back to .500.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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