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    NFL Betting – Analysis of a Winning Wager – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping Oct. 3, 2012

    Posted by FairwayJay October 3, 2012

    Breaking down a match-up and over/under winners

     
    This past week, I released my strongest NFL total play of the season thus far. A Big Bertha bomber that went flying over the total in the Falcons 30-28 win over the Panthers. Here is the analysis I provided to clients. If you would like more information or periodic sports betting picks, plays and ATS situations, shoot me an email FairwayJay@gmail.com and I’ll add you to the distribution list.

    We’ve made money each of the first 3 weeks betting on the Falcons, and this week the total has our attention. Atlanta (3-0) has kept the offense somewhat under wraps at times during their two most recent wins over San Diego and Denver. In both games, the Falcons established a lead and then used their power ground game to maintain possession, protect the lead and control the clock.  This week, look for the Falcons to fly at home against the Panthers’ deficient defense, and for Carolina to attack more using their zone-read offensive attack with QB Newton to be better this week.

    Under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the Falcons’ offense is now a pass-first unit. In each of their first 3 games, Atlanta passed the ball over 75% of their first 30 plays before using the ground game more often. A good example is vs. San Diego, as Atlanta ran the ball only 11 of their first 41 plays. But after building a big lead of 20-0 at halftime, the Falcons took the foot off the gas pedal and just grinded away to a 27-3 victory while running the ball 15 of their final 27 plays.

    The Falcons have explosive players in the passing game for QB Matt Ryan to use and exploit further this week, as WR Roddy White and Julio Jones are now one of the premiere WR duos. The Panthers’ run defense is poor, allowing 139 rushing YPG and 4.5 YPR, so Atlanta can balance the offense if they choose and have great success moving the ball. The Panthers’ pass defense is sub-par, allowing a whopping 68% completions, 243 passing YPG and 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Carolina has already allowed 10 plays of 20 or more yards this season, and we can expect the Falcons’ receivers to fly underneath, deep and run past the Panthers defenders. Carolina’s defense is allowing 383 YPG and below average 5.6 yards per play this season, which is close to last year’s numbers. So when we evaluate their opponents and match-ups this season, we do see they have faced two elite QB’s in Eli Manning and Drew Brees, but I believe Atlanta’s offense this year is more versatile and will ultimately be better than both the Saints and Giants.

    QB Matt Ryan leads the NFL in passer rating and is tied for the league lead with 8 TD passes despite not fully unleashing his offensive arsenal. He should only continue to improve as he learns and develops in the new offensive scheme. The Falcons have often lined up in condensed formations, but the WR’s and TE can have success getting open underneath against the aggressive and attacking Panthers linebackers. There will be single coverage often against either Roddy White or Julio Jones which should result in some big plays.

    Carolina QB Cam Newton is a Atlanta native and is hearing some criticism following the Panthers’ 1-2 start. Yet a close examination of his passing numbers shows that Newton leads the NFL with an outstanding 9.6 yards per pass attempt and over 8.0 YPPA in all three games this season. On a fast indoor track this week, the Panthers’ offense can also put up bigger numbers in their potentially powerful zone-read offense. Newton has run/pitch options out of a speed option play with RB DeAngelo Williams and he’ll make some bigger pass plays this week to top WR Steve Smith. Note that Carolina did put up a balanced 219 rushing and 244 passing yards in their 35-27 win over the Saints this season, with Newton running for 71 yards.  Falcons’ top pass rushing defensive end John Abraham was arrested this week (check status), and while Atlanta’s defense is improved, the expected pace of play overall in this contest and anticipated larger chunks of yards with big plays points to plenty of offense and scoring opportunities.

    Last year Atlanta beat Carolina 31-23 and 31-17 on this field with Ryan passing just 22 times for 163 yards. But Ryan passed for 320 yards and 4 TD’s in the second meeting at Carolina. This year the Falcons’ plan will be to attack more through the air, and the Panthers should counter with a similar approach. The total has dropped and we’ll disagree with the market move and play over the total with confidence.

    To receive more advice like this directly in your inbox, I suggest you shoot me an email FairwayJay@gmail.com and I’ll add you to the distribution list. You can also follow me on Twitter, where I post my sports betting thoughts regularly: @FairwayJay.

    QuadJacks - Wednesday, October 3, 2012

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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