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    NFL Betting – Analyzing Current and Advance Lines

    Posted by FairwayJay September 24, 2012

    Evaluating and understanding the weekly betting lines

    Prior to every week’s NFL games, the LVH in Las Vegas (formerly the Hilton, now Las Vegas Hotel) releases the advance lines for the following week’s NFL games. Some offshore sports books offer similar advance lines and wagering opportunities. You can bet the games in advance if you like a line or position, and also use them as a guide so you don’t over-react in your analysis to one week’s results.

    In the chart below I’ve posted the current Week 4 lines that were released by LVH on Sunday, September 23rd and the advance line that was released last week.  The point of this exercise is to note any discrepancies in the betting lines and understand why there may be differences.  Any line that is different by over 1-point or more should be noted. Realize there could be injuries that impact betting lines, and not all the lines are available Sunday due to potential injuries or player status from yesterday’s games along with results not yet in from the Sunday night and Monday night game.

    In Week 3, the lines of note that were different from the advance lines were:

    Chicago -7.5 / -10.5 vs. St. Louis

    NY Jets -2 / -4.5 vs. Miami

    Philadelphia -3 (-120) / -5 at Arizona

    Baltimore -3 / pk vs. New England

    Green Bay -5 / -3 at Seattle

    You can see the NY Jets 23-20 OT win at Miami fell between the advance and actual betting line. Also, Baltimore’s 31-30 win over New England fell between the actual and advance line. If you bet Miami in advance and then the Jets upon release you ‘middled’ your bets and won both sides. Same with Baltimore and New England. This also tells you that Arizona’s win at New England and Seattle’s home upset of Dallas likely had an impact on the lines once released.  The 3-point difference in the lines on Chicago and Baltimore were fairly significant, but Chicago’s loss at Green Bay and New England’s loss to Arizona in Week 2 had an impact in the actual line once released vs. the advance line prior to those results.

    Try not to over-react to one week’s results. Winless teams that many people were not willing to support or bet in Week 3 won as outright underdogs: Tennessee over Detroit and Oakland over Pittsburgh. Add in Minnesota’s upset of San Francisco and Kansas City’s shocker at New Orleans and you start to understand that the NFL is truly a league of ‘any given Sunday’.

    Best wishes as you evaluate the lines and try to beat the bookmaker, and educate yourself to the dynamics of the NFL and point spread prognosis.

    Week 4 – 2012     The Colts and Steelers have their bye week.

    Note there are 9 division games this week

    Week 4 Opening Line Advance Line Week 5 opponent
    Browns at NY Giants
    Ravens N/A -12 at Kansas City
    Patriots N/A -3.5 vs. Broncos
    Bills at San Francisco
    Vikings vs. Titans
    Lions N/A -7.5 Bye
    Panthers vs. Seahawks
    Falcons -6.5 -7.5 at Washington
    49ers -3 -3 (-125) vs. Bills
    NY Jets vs. Houston (Mon)
    Chargers -1.5 -3 at New Orleans
    Chiefs vs. Ravens
    Titans at Minnesota
    Texans -11 -10 at NY Jets (Mon)
    Seahawks -3 (EV) -2.5 at Carolina
    Rams vs. Cardinals
    Dolphins at Cincinnati
    Cardinals -6.5 -6 at St. Louis Rams
    Raiders Bye
    Broncos -6 -7 at New England
    Bengals -1.5 -1 vs. Dolphins
    Jaguars vs. Bears
    Saints vs. San Diego
    Packers -7.5 -7.5 at Indianapolis
    Redskins vs. Falcons
    Buccaneers -3 -2.5 (-120) Bye
    NY Giants vs. Browns
    Eagles -2.5 (EV) -3.5 at Pittsburgh
    Bears at Jacksonville
    Cowboys -3 (-120) -3 (-120) Bye

     

     

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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