• Air Max Shoes
  • kobe bryant shoes
  • KD 7
  • Lebron Shoes 12
  • Nike Zoom Hyperrev
  • Nike KD Shoes
  • Cheap Nike Free
  • Nike Free
  • Lebron 12 Shoes
  • Cheap Air Max
  • Cheap Lebron Jerseys
  • Kobe Bryant Jerseys
  • Kevin Durant Jersey
  • Ugg Sale
  • Jordan Shoes
  • Cheap Moncler Coats
  • Jeremy Scott Wings
  • Jeremy Scott Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Adidas Porsche Design
  • Kobe Shoes
  • Cheap Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Lebron 11
  • Porsche Design Adidas
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Lerbon James Sneakers
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Herve Leger Dress
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Porsche Design Shoes
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Nike Shoes
  • Cheap Coach Bags
  • louis vuitton purses
  • cheap nba jerseys
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Cheap Kobe Shoes
  • Kobe Shoes
  • KD Shoes
  • louis vuitton
  • KD Shoes
  • Sacramento Kings Jerseys
  • Washington Wizards Jerseys
  • Air Jordan Shoes
  • kd 6
  • kd 7
  • kobe 9
  • ralph lauren blue

    NFL Betting and Handicapping Point of Attack Play by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 2, 2012

    More analysis on running game success = point spread profits

    Last month I wrote an article titled ‘Running for Profits in the NFL’. The focus was to analyze the match-ups at the line of scrimmage and try to determine which team will have more success not only running the ball, but stopping the run. My proprietary data base spanning over a decade proves year after year that teams that out-rush their opponent by at least a 30-yard margin and/or reach at least 150 yards rushing cover the point spread better than 74% of the time. I keep some of my ATS rushing stats to myself and share some information with clients who subscribe to my NFL point spread prognosis and Fairway Forecasts FairwayJay.us

    However, here are some additional running game stats that point to profits.  Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and win the game are 37-9-1 ATS (75%) this season.  Last season this hit at 76% with nearly 120 game sample. Teams that rush for at least 175 yards and win the game are 25-4-1 ATS (86%) this season.

    Perhaps of greater importance than just rushing yards in evaluating and projecting running game success is the actual number of rushing attempts.  I tracked this with great success again last season, and teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game covered the point spread 85% of the time the second half of last season (over 100 game sample). Teams that run the ball 20 times or less covered the point spread just 14% of the time (over 50 game sample).

    This season the numbers read as follows through 8 weeks.  Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game and are:  62-12-2 ATS (84%). There are a handful of games in which both teams run the ball at least 30 times in a game, and I grade the winning team accordingly.  Teams that run the ball 20 times or less are 4-43-1 ATS (8%). If we add just 1 extra carry we find teams that run the ball 21 times or less are 6-52-1 (10%). So clearly, the number of rushing attempts, not yards per rush or total rushing yards, is perhaps the single most important stat in determining point spread success. As noted in previous writing, turnovers are the greatest indicator of point spread success, but since those are mostly random and especially fumbles, it’s not considered something you can realistically handicap or predict.

    How do you use or project this information? You might want to start by looking at a site like teamrankings.com and this link which shows the teams that average at least 30 rushing attempts per game include Houston, New England, Kansas City, Miami, Washington, Seattle, San Francisco. Teams that run the ball less than 24 times per game include New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Arizona and Oakland.

    While these are averages only, it at least gives you an idea of which teams are more committed to running the ball.  This link shows each teams rushing yards percentage.  If a team has a solid running game but poor QB play (like KC & turnovers or even Philadelphia), then they are still unlikely to have much success.

    As you become more proficient at isolating these match-up strengths and weaknesses, you’ll find yourself not only cashing more betting tickets, but also understand how controlling point of attack play and the ball, clock and chains impacts so much more in a NFL contest.

    Like playing poker, there are various strategies and ways to play the game, identify strengths and weaknesses, value-bet and turn a profit. And similar to poker when you play your hand correctly or as planned but still lose to misfortune or bad luck, handicapping a NFL game correctly does not always play out as planned due to unfortunate results or variance. (fumbles, turnovers, bad officials calls, game injuries, weather, etc.).

    After years of winning and profitable results handicapping and betting the NFL, I’m certain you’ll increase your winning wagers if you become more proficient in handicapping the battle in the trenches and forecasting running game success. If you don’t have the time, energy of ability to proficiently project football winners, then profit from my experience and well-rounded game. Follow on Twitter @FairwayJay.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

    There is 1 Comment

    1. Pingback QuadJacks | NFL Week 9 Game Preview Handicapping Podcast with @FairwayJay and guest Teddy Covers

    Write Your Comment

    QuadJacks Tracker - Join Now

    Social Followers

    • Lulu

      that, allow me reveal to you exclaty what did deli …

    • great agency

      It's hard to find knowledgeable people about this …

    • w chojnowie

      Thanks for the marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed …

    • pixel Gun 3D hack Tool

      I like the helpful information you provide in your …

    • Mocha

      In response to "Coffee's" article, I see I'm first …

    Recent QuadJacks Tweets

    rolex, rolex submariner, rolex daytona, rolex datejust, rolex watches prices, rolex oyster perpetual, rolex submariner price, rolex presidential, rolex yachtmaster, replica watches rolex air king, gold rolex, presidential rolex, vintage rolex, replica watches, fake watches, replica rolex replica watch, replica watches uk, expensive watches, cheap watches, watches replica, gold watches, women watches, watches for women, watches for men, best watches, ladies watches

    fake rolex watches replica rolex watches for sale

    Duvetica Jassen Dames Duvetica Jassen Heren Peuterey Heren Jassen Peuterey Vrouwen Jassen Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Jassen Ralph Lauren Hoeden Ralph Lauren Jassen Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Kinder Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Jassen Woolrich Parka Heren Woolrich Parka Vrouwen Tiffany Malaysia Bangle Tiffany Malaysia Bracelets Tiffany Malaysia Cuff Link Tiffany Malaysia Earrings Tiffany Malaysia Key Rings Tiffany Malaysia Necklaces Tiffany Malaysia Pendants Tiffany Malaysia Rings Tiffany Malaysia Sets Buty Nike Air Max 90 Buty New Balance 574 Buty Converse Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Salomon Nike AIr Max 90 Scarpe http://piazzagroupsrl.it/ Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Nike Air Max 2015 boty nike dmsk nike boty boty nike pnsk Converse Dmsk Boty Converse Low Dmsk Converse Pnsk Boty Converse Low Pnsk Converse Loafers Dmsk Converse Sandals Dmsk Converse Loafers Pnsk Converse Mid Pnsk Converse Flip flops Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Pnsk ADIDAS DMSK BOTY ADIDAS NEO DMSK ray ban bryle slune?n bryle ray ban CZ gucci bryle Oakley bryle nike slovenija nike ?evlji slovenija nike air max slovenija Ralph Lauren Sverige Outlet Ralph Lauren Sverige Ralph Lauren Sverige Onlin ralph lauren pike stockholm outlet Canada Goose Barn/Bebis Canada Goose Dam Canada Goose Camp Hooded Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Kensington Parka Canada Goose Livigno Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Montebello Parka Canada Goose Mystique Parka Canada Goose Palliser Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Solaris Parka Canada Goose Thompson Jackor Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Trillium Parka Canada Goose Victoria Parka Canada Goose Whistler Parka Canada Goose Herr Canada Goose Banff Parka Canada Goose Chateau Parka Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Citadel Parka Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Heli-Arctic Parka Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Langford Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Mountaineer Jackor Canada Goose Ontario Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Yorkville Bomber 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante Moncler Donna 2014 Moncler Uomo 2014 Moncler Accessori 2014 Nuovo Moncler Donna Nuovo Moncler Uomo Nuovo Moncler Bambini Nuovoc Moncler Bambini Uomo Piumini Moncler Uomo Moncler Giacche Uomo Moncler Gilet Donna Piumini Moncler Donne Moncler Giacche Moncler Gilet Donna Moncler Piumini Bambino Piumini Moncler Bambini Giubbotti Peuterey Donna Giubbotti Peuterey Nuovo Arrivo Giubbotti Peuterey Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo Armani Jassen Heren Armani Heren T-shirts Boss Heren T-shirts Fitflop Schoenen Gucci Jassen Heren Hugo Boss Jassen Moncler Jassen Heren North Face Jassen North Face Jassen Dames Peuterey Jassen Philipp Plein Heren T-shirts Ralph Lauren Dames Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Trainingspakken Ralph Lauren Jassen YSL Heren T-shirts http://www.epicbabez.com/ http://www.topfsunglasses.com/ http://www.sevices-plaisirs.com/ http://www.viralfroxx.com/ http://www.turismonibbiano.it/ http://dantoniodaniele.it/ http://www.casazatlo.it/ http://www.maroc-reservation.eu/ http://www.lublin.be/ http://www.blue-almonds.eu/ http://www.mikebucks.com/ http://clairescoville.com/ http://clearancejewelryaustralia.com/ Ralph Lauren Womens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Mens London 2012 Ralph Lauren Mens City Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Swimwear Ralph Lauren Mens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pants Ralph Lauren Mens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Womens Dresses Ralph Lauren Mens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Womens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Vests Ralph Lauren Mens Sport Shorts Ralph Lauren Womens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Stripe Polo Ralph Lauren Womens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Bikini Ralph Lauren Mens Tees Ralph Lauren Mens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Mens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Classic Fit Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Rugby Ralph Lauren Womens City Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Tee Ralph Lauren Mens US Open Tennis Ralph Lauren Womens Stripe Polos Ralph Lauren Mens Sweaters Ralph Lauren Mens Tracksuits jack wills outlet Nike Air Max 2014 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2015 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 87 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 90 M??czyzna Nike Air Zoom M??czyzna Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 M??czyzna Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 +2 M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Lunarglide 6 M??czyzna Nike Zoom Fit Agility M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2014 Damskie Nike Air Max 2015 Damskie Nike Air Max 87 Damskie Nike Air Max 90 Damskie Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 Damskie Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 +2 Damskie Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 Damskie Nike Lunarglide 6 Damskie Nike Zoom Fit Agility Damskie Nike Roshe Run Kids Nike Roshe Run M??czyzna Nike Roshe Run Damskie Nike 3.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Huarache NM M??czyzna Nike Loafer M??czyzna Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip M??czyzna Nike Air Max Zero M??czyzna Nike 3.0 v3 Damskie Nike Huarache NM Damskie Nike Loafer Damskie Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip Damskie Nike Air Max Zero Damskie Nike Air Rejuven8 Mule 3 Nike SB Stefan Janoski Max M??czyzna Damskie Nike Air Max 2016 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2016 Damskie

    tag heuer replica replica tissot ralph lauren outlet