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    NFL Betting – Inside the ATS Numbers by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay November 30, 2012

    Handicapping & Understanding Meaningful ATS Stats

    We’re off another top-play Big Bertha winner Thursday as the Falcons stopped the Saints 23-13. Atlanta (11-1) continues to lead the way in the chase for the top-spot in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Saints continue to get more respect in the betting market than deserved IMO, and we took advantage of their league-worst dreadful defense to cash another winner against them this season including the past two weeks against top-teams San Francisco and Atlanta.

    One key stat that happened again in the Saints/Falcons game was a big turnover differential, as the Saints had 5 turnovers to just 1 on the Falcons. For over a decade I have kept a proprietary data base of stats and used them to not only assist me in handicapping point of attack play and rushing guidelines to select more ATS winners, but also note turnovers and how they impact results. While turnovers are mostly random and especially fumbles and muffed punts, the Saints proved again that too much passing and when forced to the air more often is a proven problem that often results in more turnovers and mistakes.

    This season we continue to see the same proven parameters and point spread results in the NFL.  I’ve listed some of the year-to-date stats regarding various key indicators that determine ATS winners in the NFL. As you can see, teams are not able to overcome a high turnover differential. Sometimes your handicap and analysis of a game can be correct, only to have turnovers derail your play and cost you a winning wager. Don’t be too hard on yourself in these situations, but know there is some variance and uncertainty during the course of any game from injuries, blocked kicks, poor officials calls and of course turnovers.

    However, as you become more proficient in identifying match-ups that work in your favor and understanding point of attack play and how to apply it to specific match-ups and situations, you’ll find yourself cashing more winning wagers and having a strategy behind you selections.

    We’re having another winning NFL betting season in point spread prognosis, and if you don’t have the time, energy, discipline, ability or understanding to consistently beat the bookmaker, then get on my bag and we’ll win together.

    Through Week 12 and Nov. 29, 2012

    - Teams that rush for at least 150 yards in a game are 54-13-1 ATS
    - Teams that rush for at least 175 yards in a game are 34-7-1 ATS
    - Teams that have a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (30+ yards) are 93-29 ATS
    - Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 92-16 ATS
    - Teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are 4-60 ATS
    - Teams that are +3 or more in turnover margin in a game are 38-2 ATS
    - Team that are exactly +2 in turnover margin in a game are 33-7-1 ATS
    - Straight-Up (SU) winner of a game in competitively lined contest (6 or less) is 110-11 ATS

    Stay on Course…

    @FairwayJay

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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