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    NFL Betting – Monday Night Football Situations

    Posted by FairwayJay October 8, 2012

    Big Home Underdogs the Percentage Play

    The NY Jets host the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football and the public is betting the big road favorite with the Texans now a 9-point favorite with a total set at 40 points. While the Texans are taking over 60% of the public betting action, I’m sure they are not informed of the situations surrounding NFL home underdogs.

    In the past 12 NFL seasons, there have been over 4,300 regular season NFL games played. Over 200 of the games (5%) have had a home underdog of greater than 7 points. And those ‘ugly’ underdogs have covered the point spread over 60% of the time.  The Jets certainly qualify as a ugly ‘Dog off their embarrassing 34-0 shutout loss at home last week to the 49er’s.

    Combined with the Texans perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record this season and we have the makings of another mismatch and blowout. In fact, in the sample listed above with big home underdogs, the betting favorite has won the game by at least 2 touchdowns nearly 30% of the time! Gamblers don’t like betting on bad teams, and when they are burned big by embarrassing losses, it sticks in their mind like a bad beat in poker.

    Savvy sports bettors and poker players are always trying to put the percentages in their favor so they can grind out a profit. With a proven sample above showing a percentage play on the big home underdog, you can essentially bet on the Jets knowing that you’re a 60-40% favorite – like getting your money all-in preflop with A-10 vs. KQ.

    But here is where the fundamentals and stronger situations play out post flop. The Texans show a strong advantage at the point of attack in this match-up, as Houston features the NFL’s #1 defense and a solid stop-unit against the run allowing 90 rushing ypg. The Jets run the ball for just 86 ypg. Factor in the poor play of New York QB Mark Sanchez with his 49% completion rate and near league-worst QB Rating of 69.6, and you wonder how the Jets are going to move the ball. Jets coach Rex Ryan has even admitted that Sanchez is missing throws “when the protection’s fantastic.” Regardless, the Jets offense is struggling and sputtering with just 2 TD’s in 35 drives the past three games.

    On the other side of the ball, the Texans feature a top-tier running game and this season they average 136 rushing ypg while the Jets have the league’s worst run defense allowing 173 rushing ypg. Oh, and Houston QB Matt Schaub has a 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and is ranked top-3 in QB rating.

    The ‘Fairway Fundamentals’ of NFL point spread success indicate that if the game plays out as projected at the line of scrimmage and in the running game, the Texans have better than a 70% chance of winning and covering the point spread.  I have a detailed data base over the past decade showing statistical indicators that provide me information I use to analyze and successfully project positive point spread prognosis results. If you send me an email FairwayJay@gmail.com I’ll add you to my distribution list for updates, ATS info, Fairway free plays and more.

    Know too that the Texans are +7 in turnover margin this season and a league-best 70-point differential as they have some dominating wins with three victories by 20 or more points. The Texans have been an ATM machine dating to last season as Houston is on a 11-2 ATS money-making run including last year’s playoffs.

    I passed on the game with the conflicting data, projections and percentages. I rarely will play a big betting road favorite noting the percentage play above. Yet the fundamentals clearly point to a Houston win and cover if the game plays out as planned, and factor in the injuries to Jets top CB Darrelle Revis and playmaking WR Santonio Holmes and you can make the case that the Jets will extend their recent poor record as underdog to 2-7 ATS dating to last season.  However, if you watched the Sunday night game and key INT Touchdown by the Chargers negated by a roughing the passer penalty which the Saints followed with a touchdown, you know that penalties and turnovers can be game-changing plays. Stranger things have happened on Monday Night Football, and on the big stage in the Big Apple, the Jets may just bring their best effort as ugly underdog and provide a lucky loser all-in preflop percentage play winner.

    In an effort to keep you more informed and put the percentages in your favor, I hope your bets are good ones and that you win more pots and money.

    @FairwayJay

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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