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    Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons Flying and Undefeated

    Posted by FairwayJay October 13, 2012

    Handicapping league’s best teams and betting favorites

     
    A key Sunday night special highlights the Week 6 NFL betting card when Houston hosts Green Bay. The Texans continue to win and produce profit for their betting backers and Houston is a 3.5-point favorite. (I encourage you to check out and make use of the continuously updated Las Vegas betting lines featured on QuadJacks.com, courtesy of our new partnership with SportsOptions.) If you like Green Bay, you can take +4; prefer Houston, lay -3.5.

    At the start of the season, I tweeted out my bold Super Bowl prediction, as I’m often asked who I like for NFL and other futures.[tweet https://twitter.com/FairwayJay/status/247374272585158656]

    I’m not a big bettor on futures, although season win totals are of most interest. Injuries and a few bad breaks (last play Seattle TD vs. Green Bay) can clearly impact results, and it’s more important for teams to be playing their best ball late in the season and be healthy. Many wild card teams have come through and won the Super Bowl, so there is also seemingly value on teams at favorable odds even once the teams make the playoffs. But my early season prediction looks favorable at this point with the Falcons and Texans the only unbeaten teams and among the top teams in the NFL heading towards the midway point of the season.

    Houston continues to win and cover as they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season after outplaying the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 5 but just missing the money in their 23-17 win/no cover. At home, the Texans are 2-0 SU/ATS with both wins by at least 20 points. In fact, the Texans are on a 8-2-1 ATS run at home since the start of the 2011 season. Houston’s dominating defense from last season has carried over as the Texans have the AFC’s best defense this year allowing just 275 ypg while holding QB’s to the second-lowest QB rating (63).  Only the Bears have been better, but now the Texans will get their toughest test this season against the Packers and MVP quarterback Aaron Rogers.

    I can make the case that fundamentally the Texans should control the line of scrimmage with the better running game and stronger run defense. But while winning the point of attack and projecting such is a proven Fairway Formula for positive point spread prognosis, it’s not guaranteed in any way. Green Bay is clearly the more desperate team while Houston can nearly coast to the division title in the weak AFC South.

    I was bullish on Atlanta to start the season and the Falcons are off to a flying start at 5-0. They too are going to coast to a division title with the three other teams in the NFC South having just 1-win each. Atlanta has started strong despite changes with new offensive and defensive coordinators. But with a solid head coach in Mike Smith and a former head coach running the defense in Mike Nolan, the Falcons should only improve as their personnel and stability become even stronger with chemistry and cohesion.

    Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter prefers to pass and the Falcons have the weapons at WR and TE and a QB in Matt Ryan developing into a top-tier signal caller. He’s on his way to a Pro Bowl this year and ranks top-3 in the NFL in passing yards, TD passes and QB rating. I prefer to see the Falcons a little more balanced and use their running game, but they have done that in a few games once ahead and able to grind out yards on the ground and wear down opponents. The positive for the Falcons and coordinator Koetter is that they have such strong skill position personnel and weaker division opponents this season. Concern is whether they are physical enough to take out a team like San Francisco. Right now you would have to say no, but again the Falcons are a team that I can see continuing to improve and if they get home field advantage in the playoffs on the fast indoor track, they will be a tough out despite previous playoff exits.

    Many believe a letdown could be looming for the Falcons against the lowly Raiders, who enter off a bye. Oakland does fit some bye week and “bad” team parameters and technical indicators. Also note that the Falcons have benefited from a +10 turnover ratio. While that’s not likely to continue at such a strong rate, the Falcons don’t need any extra turnover bonus against the reeling Raiders. Quarterback Matt Ryan has a Q & A with comments on the Raiders, but obviously won’t admit he can’t wait to fire and pass against Oakland’s inept and struggling secondary that is allowing 71% completions, 283 passing yards per game, a league-worst QB passer rating and has yet to record an interception. Combined with a poor offense that obviously has line issues with the worst running attack in football (61 ypg), and a rookie coach stating that the team is still adjusting to schemes and more in the early season, and it’s easy to see the Falcons flying to a high-scoring victory as they head into their bye week.

    Best wishes as you shoot for more profit and fire for the green the rest of the football season. For more NFL Week 6 insights, make sure to listen to my new podcast.

    @FairwayJay

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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