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    NFL Betting – The Value of Preseason Information

    Posted by FairwayJay August 18, 2012

    Rams coach Fisher not as interested in winning.

    Poker players who compete to win know the value of an edge, and also understand the math and probability involved in poker. Advantages and edges can also come in the form of information and tendencies of an opponent or understanding their mindset during play.

    Handicapping and betting sports is not only about gathering information or understanding specific stats and how to apply them, but having the ability to analyze and interpret information correctly.

    In poker you can play a hand properly or as planned, and have a solid 3-1 math edge yet still lose due to unfortunate probability. In sports handicapping, you’re research and examination may lead you to a conclusion or game that plays out as projected, but the unfortunate probability of turnovers or a blow officials call for example may have you on the losing end of a wager despite having the ‘right side’ of the game.

    Preseason football offers the chance to get more information from coaches and understand the teams ‘game plan’ as they approach a contest. As teams and players adjust to rules changes and practice time, the astute handicapper and bettor has to adjust his approach and clearly understand the information and dynamics provided.

    There are different approaches and levels of motivation during preseason football, as NFL coaches evaluate their players and form their rosters. Injuries have an impact on preparation and playing time, and many coaches are reluctant to risk key players with too much playing time in preseason games.

    We’ve already seen stronger efforts, better play and more motivation from Carolina, Minnesota, Tennessee and Detroit in Week 2 wins following lackluster showings in Week 1. But based on information provided in this article on St. Louis and new Rams coach Jeff Fisher, there is no panic by the coach in practice and preparations even following the Rams’ embarrassing 38-3 Week 1 loss at Indianapolis. Still, it doesn’t appear that the Rams are ready to bounce back after being so dominated by the Colts.

    Now, clearly some coaches sandbag and don’t give fans and bettors the real inside information at times. But veteran coach Fisher has a specific plan during the first two games of preseason, and clearly winning is down the list of importance. Coach Fisher has indicated that the Rams will continue with a conservative approach regardless of how the opponent prepares or what schemes or plays they run.

    The Kansas City camp and new coach Romeo Crennel has been pleased overall with the Chiefs preparations and play as they too work to improve following their 27-17 Week 1 win in which the offensive starters scored 2 touchdowns on their first two possessions.   Check out this quote to note by coach Crennel on the initial difference in philosophy and approach for the young Chiefs.”I think with a young team if you can begin to develop the habit of winning that can help you win when the regular season starts.”

    So as some of the Rams starters play just into the second quarter, coach Fisher’s patient plan will revolve around finding out which players can play to the level desired and gradually getting the Rams ready for the regular season. Nothing else really matters in the first two preseason games, including the scoreboard or which team wins. Fisher and his staff are evaluating talent and determining who should make the roster.  That approach will likely change in Week 3 as many starters play into the third quarter and perhaps beyond, and Fisher is more likely to play his starters longer in Week 4 when many teams are resting regulars.

    So the approach is clear for the Rams and coach Fisher. If you follow closely, interpret the information and it plays out as planned, the Rams cannot be considered a worthy wager, and the positive projection is for the Chiefs to have more success in this Week 2 contest.

    I received some comments, Tweets and over a dozen emails (FairwayJay@gmail.com) regarding requests for the NFLX road underdog situation noted in this blog.  The Raiders provided the ATS winner as the line even moved to +6 in their 31-27 loss at Arizona. Turnovers and some sloppy play early put Oakland in a hole at halftime, but the Raiders outplayed and out-gained the Cardinals overall and ultimately got the money in defeat.

    Thanks for the support and we’ll continue to try and chip-in with winners and provide insightful information you can bet on.

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

    There are 2 Comments

    1. Mark Murphy
      - August 18, 2012
        -   Reply

      Jay,

      Have been a fan and a follower of yours from when you were across the street @ the other place. Continued success w/ your new venture. I value your insight and approach. Hope all is well w/ you and your family. Will be in town for week 1 NFL. Do you hang out @ the new book at the Palms? If so, I would love to hook up w/ you for 5 min and say hi in person.

      • - August 18, 2012
          -   Reply

        Thanks for comments and interest, Murph. Reach me along the way via email and I’ll update plans – FairwayJay@gmail.com. Palms sportsbook now run by Cantor Gaming as you know. Quite nice w/poker room integrated into the sportsbook area. Awesome TV picture screens & mobile app betting w/Cantor

    Write Your Comment

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