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    Winning the Turnover Battle in the NFL by @FairwayJay

    Posted by FairwayJay October 23, 2012

    Turnovers are the number one factor in point differential and ATS results.

     
    Nothing frustrates an NFL coach more than turnovers. Safe to say those frustrations carry over to sports bettors. A turnover changes the dynamic of a game, costs teams field position, affects time of possession, play calling, points and the emotional makeup of a team.  It has been said that a turnover is the equivalent of 40 yards of field position. If you take a team’s turnovers in a game and add those yards, you’ll see the impact.

    Turnovers are the number one factor in point differential in a football game and have the greatest impact on a team winning and/or covering the point spread. Turnovers are also the least predictable statistic, as they are mostly random with fumbles being nearly 90% due to variance.  Still, turnovers can be “caused” by one team or be the “symptom” of the other. The Chicago Bears lead the NFL in takeaways and turnover margin, and it’s no coincidence based on their aggressive play and attacking the football, not just the ball carrier.

    Interceptions or the potential cause of more fumbles can be handicapped by looking at the potential weakness of an offensive line, strength of a defensive line, quarterback play and experience, and the likelihood of more mistakes and turnovers in a tough road environment; especially against a stronger or Class A defense. How is a young quarterback going to perform on the road when the running game is shut down and he’s forced to pass more than expected?  Against a strong defense, the mistakes and chances of a turnover increase, albeit by a small percentage.  While any little edge is worth pursuing and considering when it comes to sports handicapping and betting, your focus should still be on things you can handicap and control more clearly, such as the projected play at the point of attack.

    I recently tweeted a stat that the Detroit Lions are the first NFL team this season to cover a point spread with a turnover margin of 3 or more.  The Lions had 4 turnovers while the Bears had zero in Chicago’s 13-7 Monday Night win.  The Lions were available at +6 in places and through the week, but the prevailing line and one used for grading was +6.5.

    You just don’t overcome a 3 or greater turnover margin in an NFL game, as teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 20-1 Against the Spread (ATS) this season.  In fact, teams that are +2 or more are 26-7 ATS this season.

    This is not a 1-year stat or trend. Last year, teams that were +3 or greater in the turnover column were 34-3 ATS (92%) and 35-1 straight up (SU). There were less games than normal last year involving these larger turnover margin games.  In 2010 teams went 52-7 ATS (88%) and 54-5 SU if they had a 3 or > turnover advantage.

    I’ve been keeping these records for years, as it helps keep things in perspective when you seemingly handicap a game correctly, only to see turnover troubles or even crazy ball bounces, muffed punts, bad snaps, poor officials calls or other uncontrollable happenings cause a bet to go bad.

    Over the past 20+ years, NFL teams that are +2 in the turnover column have covered 80% of the games ATS. That’s from a large sample size of over 1,300 games.

    NFL teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column have covered 90% ATS and closer to 92% the past decade.

    Here are a few links to NFL turnover margin and last 3 years turnovers.  Thru 7 weeks this year’s NFL turnover margin leaders are the Bears (+13), Patriots (+11), Falcons (+10) and NY Giants (+9).  The teams with the most turnover troubles are the Chiefs (-15), Eagles (-9), Colts (-9) and Cowboys (-7).

    I hope this information and insight helps you in your pursuit of profits, understanding and more winning results. Follow @FairwayJay on Twitter and shoot me a message FairwayJay@gmail.com with more comments or questions.

    QuadJacks - Wednesday, October 24, 2012

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

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