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    NFL Week 3 Game Preview Handicapping Podcast with FairwayJay

    Posted by Quad Jacks September 22, 2012

    Las Vegas sports handicapping & betting expert FairwayJay looks at every football match going into Week 3 of the NFL.

    In the space of 45 minutes, FairwayJay breaks down each game on the board this week from a personal sports betting perspective. Below are some basic excerpts from each game’s analysis throughout the podcast.

    We start with the St. Louis Rams playing the Chicago Bears. The line opened at the Bears -8 and the total at 44.5 and has moved to Bears -7 and 43 as the total. Jay: “Jay Cutler is not good in this role as a favorite.”

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road against the Dallas Cowboys opened with Dallas -7 and the total at 45.5, and has moved to Dallas -8 and the total up to 46. “I think the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time moving the ball.”

    The San Francisco 49ERS are visiting the Minnesota Vikings. We saw the line open at -6 for the 49ERS and the total of 43.5. It moved down to 43 and the 49ERS up to -6.5 later in the week. “The Vikings’ coaching staff, I think, is the worst in the NFL.”

    The Detroit Lions face off against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field. The line opened with the Lions -3 and the total at 47 points. Both at this time are up a half point on each. “No matter how I cut it, I like the Detroit Lions fundamentally in this matchup.”

    The Cincinnati Bengals are going to Washington to play the Redskins. The Redskins’ opening the line this week is -3.5 and the total at 46.5. The Redskins are now down to -3 and the total is up to 50. “This is the highest total in a decade at home for the Redskins.”

    The New York Jets head down to Miami to play the Dolphins. The line opened at the Jets -3 and the total 40.5. It has now moved down to the Jets -1 and the total up to 41.5 “The Jets are better on the line on both sides of the ball.”

    The Kansas City Chiefs are playing down in New Orleans vs the struggling Saints. The line opened at Saints -10 and the total at 53. We see the total remaining at 53 but the line on the Saints moving down to -8.5 here in Las Vegas. “I, like many, thought this is the week and lay it with the Saints, buyer beware.”

    The Buffalo Bills on the road vs the Cleveland Browns, opening line was Bills -2.5 and 43.5 on the total which have moved up to 44.5 and the Bills -3 at the Las Vegas sportsbooks. “If you are willing to lay points with a Buffalo team that is 2 and 15 straight up on the road going back to back seasons, allowing 32 points on the road per game, that is how you lose money betting the NFL.”

    Jacksonville Jaguars on the road playing the Indianapolis Colts. Opening line was the Colts -3 and the total 42 points. The numbers here in Las Vegas remain the same on the spread, however the points have moved up to 43. “There might be an overreaction to the Jags to their 0-2 start, they have looked really bad.”

    The Philadelphia Eagles are taking their game to the desert by playing the Arizona Cardinals. Opening line was Eagles -4 and the total at 44 points. Las Vegas now has the Eagles at -3 and total down to 42.5. “This game is the biggest wiseguy bet of the week. They are lining up on the Cardinals.”

    Atlanta Falcons on the road in sunny southern California playing the San Diego Chargers. Opening line had the Chargers -3 with the total at 49 points. Now the numbers have moved on the total to 47.5 but the spread has remained the same. “Atlanta is the team to beat in this division.”

    The Houston Texans playing at Mile High stadium vs the Denver Broncos saw the line open with a pick’em and the total coming in at 47.5. What we see in the Las Vegas sportsbooks now is the Texans laying 2 points and the total coming down to 44.5. “The Denver defense is undervalued.”

    The Pittsburgh Steelers on the road playing the Oakland Raiders. The line opened at the Steelers -4.5 and the total coming in at 43 points. The Las Vegas books have this now at the Steelers -3.5 and the total moving up to 45.5. “Star defense players are out for the Steelers this week, you have to know that.”

    The Sunday night game has the New England Patriots playing the Baltimore Ravens. Opening lines have the Ravens -3 and the total at 48.5. Las Vegas sportsbooks still have the Ravens at -3, but the total has moved up as high as 50 points. “The Patriots, under Belichick, are 13 and 2 against the spread (ATS) on the road coming off a loss, covering 6 of their last 7 as an underdog.”

    The Monday NFL game this week is the Green Bay Packers on the road playing the Seattle Seahawks which opened with the Packers -4.5 and the total at 47.5. Now we see the Packers move to -3 and the total come down to 45 points. “The move is right on the total points coming down.”

    QuadJacks - Saturday, September 22, 2012

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