• Air Max Shoes
  • kobe bryant shoes
  • KD 7
  • Lebron Shoes 12
  • Nike Zoom Hyperrev
  • Nike KD Shoes
  • Cheap Nike Free
  • Nike Free
  • Lebron 12 Shoes
  • Cheap Air Max
  • Cheap Lebron Jerseys
  • Kobe Bryant Jerseys
  • Kevin Durant Jersey
  • Ugg Sale
  • Jordan Shoes
  • Cheap Moncler Coats
  • Jeremy Scott Wings
  • Jeremy Scott Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Adidas Porsche Design
  • Kobe Shoes
  • Cheap Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Kevin Durant Shoes
  • Lebron 11
  • Porsche Design Adidas
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Lerbon James Sneakers
  • Cheap KD Shoes
  • Herve Leger Dress
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Porsche Design Shoes
  • Lebron Shoes
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Nike Shoes
  • Cheap Coach Bags
  • louis vuitton purses
  • cheap nba jerseys
  • Lebron James Shoes
  • Cheap Kobe Shoes
  • Kobe Shoes
  • KD Shoes
  • louis vuitton
  • KD Shoes
  • Sacramento Kings Jerseys
  • Washington Wizards Jerseys
  • Air Jordan Shoes
  • kd 6
  • kd 7
  • kobe 9
  • ralph lauren blue

    Week 1 NFL Betting – Situations to Support – QuadJacks Sports Handicapping

    Posted by FairwayJay September 2, 2012

    Losing teams last year set up solid situational systems on sides and totals.

     
    Football fans rejoice as Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season has arrived and bettors are ready to fire at America’s most popular betting sport.

    You’ll read and hear me talk throughout the NFL season about fundamental match-up handicapping and the importance of running the ball and stopping the run. I’ll present parameters that have proven successful year after year and how to analyze and utilize rushing guidelines as a significant part of your process for positive and profitable point spread prognosis.

    In Week 1 we have no statistical profiles to review other than recent season’s numbers and what we’ve learned and evaluated through preseason. That can be helpful and significant if you’ve identified teams that have changes, injuries or issues specifically along the offensive and defensive lines heading into the new season.

    But for Week 1, I thought I would provide you with some situations that have proven successful and profitable in recent seasons when betting sides and totals.

    Let’s start with losing teams from last year or those teams that won 7 or less games.  Many bettors have a tough time supporting losing teams, so for this situation we’ll avoid your trepidation and take a look at over/under wagers as it relates to these losing teams.  Last year there were 12 teams that finished with 7 or less wins; six in both the AFC and NFC.  The Colts, Browns, Jaguars, Dolphins, Bills, Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, Buccaneers, Redskins, Panthers and Seahawks.

    With a sample size of over 140 games, losing teams have played ‘under’ the game total nearly 60% in Week 1. When last year’s losing team is installed as a home underdog in Week 1, those games go ‘under’ the total 63% of the time (nearly 75 game sample). When we filter in and add a specific total parameter, we find a situation that wins 75% of the time. I can’t share all my proprietary information, but know there is one (1) game that fits this very positive profile and situation in Week 1.

    As you might expect, most losing teams struggle defensively, yet relying on the previous season’s statistics and specifically defensive numbers can be a mistake. Recall that in 2010 the Houston Texans finished #30 in the NFL allowing 379 ypg and a league-worst 6.0 yards per play. In 2011 the Texans moved all the way to #2 in defense allowing just 285 ypg.  The Jacksonville Jaguars finished #28 in 2010 (372 ypg) and moved up to #6 in 2011 (313 ypg), but still went 5-11 as the Jaguars offense led by a rookie QB was dead last in the NFL averaging just 259 yards per game (ypg).

    Regardless of the stats, every year we see Week 1 lines slightly inflated towards last year’s stronger teams and the losing teams somewhat mostly disrespected. Public perception can factor into this knowing that the NFL is the most public bet sport and the betting public has a tougher time supporting and betting losing teams.  The linemaker knows this along with general betting tendencies.

    From a side perspective and with a sample size of over 100 games from seasons past, teams who won 7 or less games the previous season that are a road underdog in Week 1 have covered 57% of those games.  That’s a pretty good base situation. I’ll let you do the simple analysis of last year’s teams that fit this Week 1 profile.

    While history does not assure future success, I hope this at least provides you a guideline and some direction as you evaluate Week 1 lines and totals.

    Follow me on Twitter @FairwayJay and shoot me a email, Tweet or DM for more insight and information you can bet on.

     

    About FairwayJay

    Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. Fairway Jay understands the dynamics involved in sports handicapping and betting over and above the myriad of stats to sort through to have success. You can sign up for weekly game analysis at www.fairwayjay.us & Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay

    View all post by FairwayJay Visit author's website

    Write Your Comment

    QuadJacks Tracker - Join Now

    Social Followers

    • Lulu

      that, allow me reveal to you exclaty what did deli …

    • great agency

      It's hard to find knowledgeable people about this …

    • w chojnowie

      Thanks for the marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed …

    • pixel Gun 3D hack Tool

      I like the helpful information you provide in your …

    • Mocha

      In response to "Coffee's" article, I see I'm first …

    Recent QuadJacks Tweets

    rolex, rolex submariner, rolex daytona, rolex datejust, rolex watches prices, rolex oyster perpetual, rolex submariner price, rolex presidential, rolex yachtmaster, replica watches rolex air king, gold rolex, presidential rolex, vintage rolex, replica watches, fake watches, replica rolex replica watch, replica watches uk, expensive watches, cheap watches, watches replica, gold watches, women watches, watches for women, watches for men, best watches, ladies watches

    fake rolex watches replica rolex watches for sale

    Duvetica Jassen Dames Duvetica Jassen Heren Peuterey Heren Jassen Peuterey Vrouwen Jassen Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Jassen Ralph Lauren Hoeden Ralph Lauren Jassen Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Kinder Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Ralph Lauren Vrouwen Jassen Woolrich Parka Heren Woolrich Parka Vrouwen Tiffany Malaysia Bangle Tiffany Malaysia Bracelets Tiffany Malaysia Cuff Link Tiffany Malaysia Earrings Tiffany Malaysia Key Rings Tiffany Malaysia Necklaces Tiffany Malaysia Pendants Tiffany Malaysia Rings Tiffany Malaysia Sets Buty Nike Air Max 90 Buty New Balance 574 Buty Converse Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Salomon Nike AIr Max 90 Scarpe http://piazzagroupsrl.it/ Buty Nike Roshe Run Buty Nike Air Max 2015 boty nike dmsk nike boty boty nike pnsk Converse Dmsk Boty Converse Low Dmsk Converse Pnsk Boty Converse Low Pnsk Converse Loafers Dmsk Converse Sandals Dmsk Converse Loafers Pnsk Converse Mid Pnsk Converse Flip flops Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Dmsk Converse High Tops Boty Pnsk ADIDAS DMSK BOTY ADIDAS NEO DMSK ray ban bryle slune?n bryle ray ban CZ gucci bryle Oakley bryle nike slovenija nike ?evlji slovenija nike air max slovenija Ralph Lauren Sverige Outlet Ralph Lauren Sverige Ralph Lauren Sverige Onlin ralph lauren pike stockholm outlet Canada Goose Barn/Bebis Canada Goose Dam Canada Goose Camp Hooded Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Kensington Parka Canada Goose Livigno Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Montebello Parka Canada Goose Mystique Parka Canada Goose Palliser Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Solaris Parka Canada Goose Thompson Jackor Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Trillium Parka Canada Goose Victoria Parka Canada Goose Whistler Parka Canada Goose Herr Canada Goose Banff Parka Canada Goose Chateau Parka Canada Goose Chilliwack Bomber Canada Goose Citadel Parka Canada Goose Constable Parka Canada Goose Expedition Parka Canada Goose Freestyle V?st Canada Goose Heli-Arctic Parka Canada Goose Hybridge Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Jackor Canada Goose Hybridge Lite Jackor Canada Goose Langford Parka Canada Goose Lodge Down Hoody Jackor Canada Goose Mountaineer Jackor Canada Goose Ontario Parka Canada Goose Snow Mantra Parka Canada Goose Tremblant Jackor Canada Goose Yorkville Bomber 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante Moncler Donna 2014 Moncler Uomo 2014 Moncler Accessori 2014 Nuovo Moncler Donna Nuovo Moncler Uomo Nuovo Moncler Bambini Nuovoc Moncler Bambini Uomo Piumini Moncler Uomo Moncler Giacche Uomo Moncler Gilet Donna Piumini Moncler Donne Moncler Giacche Moncler Gilet Donna Moncler Piumini Bambino Piumini Moncler Bambini Giubbotti Peuterey Donna Giubbotti Peuterey Nuovo Arrivo Giubbotti Peuterey Uomo 2015 Piumini Moncler Bambini 2015 Piumini Moncler Donna 2015 Piumini Moncler Infante 2015 Piumini Moncler Uomo Armani Jassen Heren Armani Heren T-shirts Boss Heren T-shirts Fitflop Schoenen Gucci Jassen Heren Hugo Boss Jassen Moncler Jassen Heren North Face Jassen North Face Jassen Dames Peuterey Jassen Philipp Plein Heren T-shirts Ralph Lauren Dames Ralph Lauren Heren Ralph Lauren Heren Trainingspakken Ralph Lauren Jassen YSL Heren T-shirts http://www.epicbabez.com/ http://www.topfsunglasses.com/ http://www.sevices-plaisirs.com/ http://www.viralfroxx.com/ http://www.turismonibbiano.it/ http://dantoniodaniele.it/ http://www.casazatlo.it/ http://www.maroc-reservation.eu/ http://www.lublin.be/ http://www.blue-almonds.eu/ http://www.mikebucks.com/ http://clairescoville.com/ http://clearancejewelryaustralia.com/ Ralph Lauren Womens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Mens London 2012 Ralph Lauren Mens City Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Swimwear Ralph Lauren Mens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pants Ralph Lauren Mens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Jackets Ralph Lauren Womens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Womens Dresses Ralph Lauren Mens Hoodie Ralph Lauren Womens Big Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Vests Ralph Lauren Mens Sport Shorts Ralph Lauren Womens Flag Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Stripe Polo Ralph Lauren Womens U.S. Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Bikini Ralph Lauren Mens Tees Ralph Lauren Mens Polo Shirts Ralph Lauren Mens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Match Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Classic Fit Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Pony Polo Ralph Lauren Mens Rugby Ralph Lauren Womens City Polo Ralph Lauren Womens Long Sleeved Ralph Lauren Womens Tee Ralph Lauren Mens US Open Tennis Ralph Lauren Womens Stripe Polos Ralph Lauren Mens Sweaters Ralph Lauren Mens Tracksuits jack wills outlet Nike Air Max 2014 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2015 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 87 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 90 M??czyzna Nike Air Zoom M??czyzna Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 M??czyzna Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 +2 M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit M??czyzna Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Lunarglide 6 M??czyzna Nike Zoom Fit Agility M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2014 Damskie Nike Air Max 2015 Damskie Nike Air Max 87 Damskie Nike Air Max 90 Damskie Nike Flyknit Lunar 2 Damskie Nike Free 3.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 4.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 +2 Damskie Nike Free 5.0 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free 5.0 V2 Flyknit Damskie Nike Free Run 5.0 v3 Damskie Nike Lunarglide 6 Damskie Nike Zoom Fit Agility Damskie Nike Roshe Run Kids Nike Roshe Run M??czyzna Nike Roshe Run Damskie Nike 3.0 v3 M??czyzna Nike Huarache NM M??czyzna Nike Loafer M??czyzna Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip M??czyzna Nike Air Max Zero M??czyzna Nike 3.0 v3 Damskie Nike Huarache NM Damskie Nike Loafer Damskie Nike Wmns Roshe One Slip Damskie Nike Air Max Zero Damskie Nike Air Rejuven8 Mule 3 Nike SB Stefan Janoski Max M??czyzna Damskie Nike Air Max 2016 M??czyzna Nike Air Max 2016 Damskie

    tag heuer replica replica tissot ralph lauren outlet