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    World Series of Poker Europe Main Event Hand Analysis

    Posted by Dave Consolazio November 1, 2013

    Young Spanish pro Adrian Mateos entered the final day of the World Series of Poker Europe Main Event as the chip leader with a stack of 3,781,000 chips with six players remaining. He would make the most of this chip lead, eventually going on to win his first bracelet and the €1,000,000 that went with it.

    WSOP.com covered the final day’s action hand for hand. When Fabrice Solier knocked out Jerome Huge on the 77th hand of Day 5, the field was cut down to three players with Adrian Mateos sitting with 5.7 million in chips, Solier with 3 million and Dominik Nitsche with 2.4 million. Adrian Mateos continued to build his lead three-handed, and tangled with Dominik Nitsche on Hand #124 in what turned out to be one of the most interesting hands of the final table. Here’s a look at that key hand.

    Adrian Mateos vs. Dominik Nitsche

    The Hand:

    With the blinds up to 15,000/30,000 ante 5,000 coming out of the dinner break 12 hands ago, Adrian Mateos raised to 85,000 from the button. Fabrice Solier folded from the small blind and Dominik Nitsche raised to 225,000. Mateos called, and the two saw a flop of 10Q2.

    Nitsche followed up his pre-flop three-bet with a 180,000 bet on the flop, which Mateos called. The turn brought the 3. Nitsche bet 290,000, and once again Mateos called behind. The 5 came on the river and Dominik Nitsche bet 400,000. Adrian Mateos went deep into the tank and eventually decided on a call. Mateos’s pair of pocket sevens were good as Nitsche mucked his cards.

    This hand put Adrian Mateos over 8 million in chips, giving him a commanding lead over the othe two remaining players.

    Analysis:

    Dominik Nitsche had the right idea in this pot, choosing to represent a big hand by following up his pre-flop three-bet with three more bullets on the flop, turn, and river. But it was the size of these bullets, and most notably the final one, that gave Adrian Mateos the opportunity to call down at the end.

    After the betting action pre-flop there were 480,000 chips in the middle. Nitsche’s bet of 180,000 offers Mateos over 3.5-to-1 on a call. Whether he hit something or is on a pure float, I’d imagine that just about anything that Mateos was willing to call with in position pre-flop he will also call with to this bet on the flop.

    Nothing changes on a 3 turn, and Nitsche once again offers very nice pot odds of just under 4-to-1 betting 290,000 into a pot of 840,000. I don’t mind this bet size by Nitsche; while he could have gone a bit bigger, this will get rid of a lot of Ace-high and floating-with-air type of hands. Mateos is correct to call with his sevens getting such good odds, but he’s praying for a check or a seven on the river at this point.

    The river 5 changes nothing, and it is here that Nitsche had to make an all-in or check-fold decision in my opinion. Getting rid of Mateos cheap has already failed on two streets. His call on the turn indicated one of two things; either he has something (I’d put a 10 or a pocket pair in his range from the way the hand has played out), or he has floated twice with the intention of stealing it on the river.

    A value-bet bluff of 400,000 into a pot of ~1.4 million accomplishes nothing. This bet offers 4.5-to-1 on a call. Even if Mateos interprets this bet as a value-bet, he has priced himself into a crying call with so much already invested in this pot and such a safe river card. If he was planning on stealing it, you’ve left the door open to an all-in re-raise, which you have to fold to. Just about the only hand you are getting a fold from with this bet is KJ or J9.

    All-in on the river completes the story you’ve been trying to tell all along; “I have the queen”. It equates to roughly a pot sized bet which is exactly how you’d play the queen or a better hand in this situation. This bet would effectively get a fold from just about every hand Mateos wasn’t trapping with.

    Or wave the white-flag and check-fold. You still have plenty of chips to work with, no need to throw away another 13 big blinds. I don’t blame Dominik Nitsche for taking one final crack at it; it is always gut-wrenching to surrender a huge pot on the river. But going up against the chip leader, a small bet like this on the river just isn’t going to get the job done often enough to make it a profitable play.

    Nitsche eventually finished in third place for a nice €400,000 payday while Fabrice Solier took second place for €610,000.

    About Dave Consolazio

    Dave Consolazio (@DavesDime) is a live-game cash and tournament player in the Los Angeles area. He works as a sportswriter and posts original content on his webpage, www.DavesDime.com.

    View all post by Dave Consolazio Visit author's website

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