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    WPT Super High Roller Hand Analysis: Doc Sands Bluffed Off of a Flush

    Posted by Dave Consolazio September 12, 2013

    The most interesting hand of this week’s World Poker Tour broadcast was between amateur Jim Courtney (Q J) and David “Doc” Sands (A 10). Sands raised preflop and Courtney called from the small blind. Both checked the flop of 7 6 2. Courtney bet ~1/3 of the pot on a 6 turn, Sands called. The river brought a third spade 5, and Courtney continued his representation with another ~1/3 pot bet. Sands made an excellent call and scooped a nice 825,000 chip pot with Ace high.

    This would have been an great hand to break down in this segment, but Tony Dunst beat me to the punch, breaking the hand down brilliantly in his Raw Deal segment right on the broadcast. He broke down Sands’ logic that Courtney likely wouldn’t have small cards in his hand after calling the raise, and he was getting the right price on the end to look him up.

    So let’s break down another hand that came earlier in the broadcast in which Sands was facing another difficult decision on the river.

    Daniel Perper (885,000, 22 BB) vs. David “Doc” Sands (780,000, 19 BB)

    Pre-flop:

    With the blinds at 20,000/40,000, action folded around to Dan Perper in the small blind, who looked down at K 8. He raised to 90,000. Getting 3-to-1 odds and in position, Sands called the additional 50,000 with 9 8.

    Pretty standard play by both players here. You could make an argument for Perper raising more with what figures to be the best hand in this spot, but with current stacks and the gigantic money bubble looming two spots away, the small raise makes sense.

    The flop: 3 4 8

    Perper checks. Sands bets 85,000. Perper calls.

    What an action flop as both players flop top pair, Sands with a flush draw and Perper with a strong kicker. In his commentary of the hand, Mike Sexton was baffled by Perper’s decision to check the flop, saying that it only made sense if he was planning to check-raise, which he didn’t with the flat call behind.

    I agree with Sexton 100% that Perper should have bet this flop. In all likelihood you have the best hand right now, and will often get called by a lot of hands that you are ahead of. Or you might take it down now, as opposed to letting a free card peel off that can give your opponent the best hand, which on this board could be just about any card.

    Great arguments can be made for both calling or raising after Sands bets the 85,000. I’m fine with Perper making the more conservative decision and hoping to peel off a safe turn before getting more chips in.

    The turn: 3 4 8 (K)

    Perper checks, Sands checks.

    Clear check for Perper, as if he wanted to keep the pot small on the flop it would be out of fear of a club on the turn. He now has four outs to the boat, but this obviously wasn’t a card he wanted to see.

    Sands opted for pot control and checked behind with his 9-high flush. I’d have bet here, as I’m either going to take it down or find out that I’m beat if I get re-raised. But with showdown value and position, a check isn’t terrible.

    The river: 3 4 8 K (5)

    Perper bets 145,000. Sands folds.

    Excellent play by Perper. No reason to believe that Sands has a club in his hand with the way the hand has played out, and K8 has lost its showdown value with the fifth club coming. Checking gives Sands the chance to make the same bluff, one that you can’t call. Acting first works to your advantage here, take the stab and hope to get a fold.

    Sands folding here made no sense to me. For the reasons that I just mentioned above, Perper is correct to bet this river card almost all of the time. Getting better than 3-to-1 on a call, isn’t it at least that likely that Perper is making this move without a flush?

    The turn check only makes sense if you are planning on calling this river bet. You induced it by showing weakness on the turn with the check behind. If you were worried about a potential river bet since you didn’t know where you were at, why not bet the turn to find out?

    I’m sure all of this went through Sands’ head, and he eventually just decided that Perper was far more likely to be value-betting than bluffing, as a slow-played A or Q plays it the exact same way. At that price though, I wouldn’t have been able to avoid a crying call. Could you?

    WPT Season 11 continues next Sunday night on your local Fox Sports station with Part 3 of the WPT $100,000 Super High Roller event final table coverage.

    About Dave Consolazio

    Dave Consolazio (@DavesDime) is a live-game cash and tournament player in the Los Angeles area. He works as a sportswriter and posts original content on his webpage, www.DavesDime.com.

    View all post by Dave Consolazio Visit author's website

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